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Uncertainty Management for Knowledge Maturity in a High-Consequence Industry
Blekinge Institute of Technology, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Industrial Economics.
2017 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

In industries where risks involve high consequences, uncertainties are cause for concern, espe-cially in early stages of producing a product or service when less is known about the final de-sign. To counteract this, uncertainties must be managed during evaluations to reach the best decision possible. The purpose of this research is to assert how to manage uncertainties in the early stages of designing a product or service for a high-consequence risk company using the concept of knowledge maturity and descriptive decision based methods to assess uncertainty. As such, it was assessed how a high-consequence risk company deals with and manages un-certainties in early product development. It was then determined how uncertainties could be managed in design engineering. This was fulfilled by conducting semi-structured interviews with staff at GKN, an aerospace company that deals with extensive uncertainties in a high-consequence industry. To complement this, literary reviews were conducted encompassing uncertainty assessments in design engineering. The findings showed that uncertainty in the early stages of design is either lingered on until more information is made available or circum-vented by developed mitigation plans. It was also discovered how evaluations are carried out in early design considering uncertainty. Lastly the findings implicate that uncertainty assess-ments are applicable through use of descriptive decision based models coupled with a knowledge maturity scale in a stage gated process.

Abstract [sv]

Inom industrier där risker involverar höga konsekvenser så är osäkerheter anledning till oro, speciellt i tidiga stadier av produktion för produkt eller tjänst då man vet mindre om den slut-giltiga designen. Osäkerheter måste hanteras under utvärderingar för att motverka detta och nå det bästa beslutet. Syftet med denna forskning är att hävda hur högkonsekvensriskföretag ska hantera osäkerheter i tidiga stadiet av produkt- eller tjänstdesign genom att använda kon-ceptet knowledge maturity och deskriptiva beslutsmetoder för att bedöma osäkerheter. På så viss fastställs hur högkonsekvensriskföretag hanterar osäkerheter i tidiga stadiet av produktut-veckling. Efter detta framstod det hur osäkerheter bör hanteras i design engineering vilket uppfylldes genom att utföra semistrukturerade intervjuer med personal på GKN, ett flygkom-ponentsföretag som hanterar omfattande osäkerheter i en högkonsekvensriskindustri. Det här komplimenterades med litterära studier som omfattar osäkerhetsbedömningar i design engine-ering. Resultaten visade att osäkerheter i tidiga stadiet av produktutveckling hanteras genom att invänta ytterligare information eller genom att konstruera handlingsplaner för att kringgå osäkerheten. Det upptäcktes även hur bedömningar sker i tidiga stadiet av produktutveckling i hänsyn till osäkerheter. Slutligen konstaterades det att osäkerhetsbedömningar är applicerbara genom användning av deskriptiva beslutsmetoder kopplat med knowledge maturity-skalan i en stage-gate-process.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017. , 43 p.
Keyword [en]
Uncertainty, Knowledge Maturity, Stage Gate Process, Decision Making
National Category
Business Administration Applied Psychology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:bth-14809OAI: oai:DiVA.org:bth-14809DiVA: diva2:1118294
External cooperation
GKN Aerospace Sweden AB
Subject / course
Degree Project in Master of Science in Engineering 30.0
Educational program
IEACI Master of Science in Industrial Management and Engineering
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2017-06-30 Created: 2017-06-30 Last updated: 2017-06-30Bibliographically approved

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