Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Demand Forecasting Of Outbound Logistics Using Machine learning
Blekinge Institute of Technology, Faculty of Computing, Department of Computer Science.
2019 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Background: long term volume forecasting is important for logistics service providers for planning their capacity and taking the strategic decisions. At present demand is estimated by using traditional methods of averaging techniques or with their own experiences which often contain some error. This study is focused on filling these gaps by using machine learning approaches. The sample data set is provided by the organization, which is the leading manufacturer of trucks, buses and construction equipment, the organization has customers from more than 190 markets and has production facilities in 18 countries.

Objectives: This study is to investigate a suitable machine learning algorithm that can be used for forecasting demand of outbound distributed products and then evaluating the performance of the selected algorithms by experimenting to articulate the possibility of using long-term forecasting in transportation.

Methods: primarily, a literature review was initiated to find a suitable machine learn- ing algorithm and then based on the results of the literature review an experiment is performed to evaluate the performance of the selected algorithms

Results: Selected CNN, ANN and LSTM models are performing quite well But based on the type and amount of historical data that models were given to learn, models have a very slight difference in performance measures in terms of forecasting performance. Comparisons are made with different measures that are selected by the literature review Conclusions. This study examines the efficacy of using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) for performing demand forecasting of outbound distributed products at the country level. The methodology provided uses convolutions on historical loads. The output from the convolutional operation is supplied to fully connected layers together with other relevant data. The presented methodology was implemented on an organization data set of outbound distributed products per month. Results obtained from the CNN were compared to results obtained by Long Short Term Memories LSTM sequence-to-sequence (LSTM S2S) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) for the same dataset. Experimental results showed that the CNN outperformed LSTM while producing comparable results to the ANN. Further testing is needed to compare the performances of different deep learning architectures in outbound forecasting.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. , p. 36
Keywords [en]
Demand forecasting, Time series, Outbound logistics, Machine learning.
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:bth-18834OAI: oai:DiVA.org:bth-18834DiVA, id: diva2:1367098
External cooperation
Volvo Group Truck Operations
Subject / course
DV2572 Master´s Thesis in Computer Science
Educational program
DVADA Master Qualification Plan in Computer Science
Available from: 2019-11-04 Created: 2019-10-31 Last updated: 2019-11-04Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

Demand Forecasting(7228 kB)7258 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT02.pdfFile size 7228 kBChecksum SHA-512
34816038fcb9cb4170083e7155408fb3fc2bb40c3540ad358fd0c77c8ed3e60c9fb52e3c0e70969d3a2f5bee3784cf1adb5297bba31d1d046a987bfb4fe4f949
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

By organisation
Department of Computer Science
Computer Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 7264 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

urn-nbn

Altmetric score

urn-nbn
Total: 2103 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf