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Machine Learning Approach to Forecasting Empty Container Volumes
LIU, YUAN
Blekinge Institute of Technology, Faculty of Computing, Department of Computer Science.
2019 (English)
Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE credits
Student thesis
Abstract [en]
Background
With the development of global trade, the volume of goods transported around the world is growing. And over 90% of world trade is carried by shipping industry, container shipping is the most important way. But with the growth of trade imbalances, the reposition of empty containers has become an important issue for shipping. Accurately predicting the volume of empty containers will greatly assist the empty container reposition plan.
Objectives
The main aim of this study is to explore the effect of machine learning in predicting empty container volumes, make a performance comparison and analysis with existing empirical methods and mathematical statistics methods.
Methods
The main method of this study is experiment. In this study I chose the appropriate algorithm model and then trained and tested the model. This study uses the same data sources as the industrial approach, using the same metric to evaluate and compare the performance of machine learning methods and industrial methods.
Results
Through experiments, this study obtained the forecasting performance results of five machine algorithms including the LASSO regression algorithm on the Los Angeles Port and Long Beach Port datasets. Metrics are (Mean Square Error) MSE and (Mean Absolute Error) MAE.
Conclusions
LASSO Regression and Ridge Regression are the best machine learning algorithms for predicting the volume of empty containers. Compared to empirical methods, the single machine learning algorithm performs better and has better accuracy. However, compared with mature statistical methods such as time series, the performance of a single machine learning algorithm is worse than the time series method. Machine learning needs to try to combine multiple models or select more high-correlation feature quantities to improve performance on this prediction problem.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. , p. 48
Keywords [en]
Machine learning, Regression, Empty Containers, Forecasting, Time Series
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
URN:
urn:nbn:se:bth-18858
OAI: oai:DiVA.org:bth-18858
DiVA, id:
diva2:1367315
Subject / course
DV2572 Master´s Thesis in Computer Science
Educational program
DVADA Master Qualification Plan in Computer Science
Supervisors
Henesey, Lawrence
Examiners
Mendes, Emilia
Available from:
2019-11-04
Created:
2019-11-02
Last updated:
2020-01-15
Bibliographically approved
Open Access in DiVA
Machine Learning Approach
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ieee
modern-language-association-8th-edition
vancouver
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apa
ieee
modern-language-association-8th-edition
vancouver
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en-GB
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