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All Burglaries Are Not the Same: Predicting Near-Repeat Burglaries in Cities Using Modus Operandi
Blekinge Institute of Technology, Faculty of Computing, Department of Computer Science.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8929-7220
Blekinge Institute of Technology, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Industrial Economics.
2022 (English)In: ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, ISSN 2220-9964, Vol. 11, no 3, article id 160Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The evidence that burglaries cluster spatio-temporally is strong. However, research is unclear on whether clustered burglaries (repeats/near-repeats) should be treated as qualitatively different crimes compared to spatio-temporally unrelated burglaries (non-repeats). This study, therefore, investigated if there were differences in modus operandi-signatures (MOs, the habits and methods employed by criminals) between near-repeat and non-repeat burglaries across 10 Swedish cities, as well as whether MO-signatures can aid in predicting if a burglary is classified as a nearrepeat or a non-repeat crime. Data consisted of 5744 residential burglaries, with 137 MO features characterizing each case. Descriptive data of repeats/non-repeats is provided together with Wilcoxon tests of MO-differences between crime pairs, while logistic regressions were used to train models to predict if a crime scene was classified as a near-repeat or a non-repeat crime. Near-repeat crimes were rather stylized, showing heterogeneity in MOs across cities, but showing homogeneity within cities at the same time, as there were significant differences between near-repeat and non-repeat burglaries, including subgroups of features, such as differences in mode of entering, target selection, types of goods stolen, as well the traces that were left at the crime scene. Furthermore, using logistic regression models, it was possible to predict near-repeat and non-repeat crimes with a mean F1-score of 0.8155 (0.0866) based on the MO. Potential policy implications are discussed in terms of how data-driven procedures can facilitate analysis of spatio-temporal phenomena based on the MO-signatures of offenders, as well as how law enforcement agencies can provide differentiated advice and response when there is suspicion that a crime is part of a series as opposed to an isolated event. © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI , 2022. Vol. 11, no 3, article id 160
Keywords [en]
Crime prediction, Geographic crime analysis, Repeat and near-repeat victimization, Residential burglaries
National Category
Computer Sciences Law and Society
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:bth-22736DOI: 10.3390/ijgi11030160ISI: 000775262300001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85125245518OAI: oai:DiVA.org:bth-22736DiVA, id: diva2:1643717
Funder
European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)
Note

open access

Available from: 2022-03-10 Created: 2022-03-10 Last updated: 2022-04-19Bibliographically approved

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Borg, AntonSvensson, Martin

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