Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Analytic Long Term Forecasting with Periodic Gaussian Processes
Blekinge Institute of Technology, School of Computing.
2014 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years))Student thesisAlternative title
Analytic Long Term Forecasting with Periodic Gaussian Processes (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

In many application domains such as weather forecasting, robotics and machine learning we need to model, predict and analyze the evolution of periodic systems. For instance, time series applications that follow periodic patterns appear in climatology where the CO2 emissions and temperature changes follow periodic or quasi-periodic patterns. Another example can be in robotics where the joint angle of a rotating robotic arm follows a periodic pattern. It is often very important to make long term prediction of the evolution of such systems. For modeling and prediction purposes, Gaussian processes are powerful methods, which can be adjusted based on the properties of the problem at hand. Gaussian processes belong to the class of probabilistic kernel methods, where the kernels encode the characteristics of the problems into the models. In case of the systems with periodic evolution, taking the periodicity into account can simplifies the problem considerably. The Gaussian process models can account for the periodicity by using a periodic kernel. Long term predictions need to deal with uncertain points, which can be expressed by a distribution rather than a deterministic point. Unlike the deterministic points, prediction at uncertain points is analytically intractable for the Gaussian processes. However, there are approximation methods that allow for dealing with uncertainty in an analytic closed form, such as moment matching. However, only some particular kernels allow for analytic moment matching. The standard periodic kernel does not allow for analytic moment matching when performing long term predictions. This work presents an analytic approximation method for long term forecasting in periodic systems. We present a different parametrization of the standard periodic kernel, which allows us to approximate moment matching in an analytic closed form. We evaluate our approximate method on different periodic systems. The results indicate that the proposed method is valuable for the long term forecasting of periodic processes.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. , p. 52
Keywords [en]
Gaussian Process, Periodic Kernel, Long Term Forecasting
National Category
Computer Sciences Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:bth-5458Local ID: oai:bth.se:arkivex564C0F370FDB9470C1257C6100397614OAI: oai:DiVA.org:bth-5458DiVA, id: diva2:832840
Uppsok
Physics, Chemistry, Mathematics
Supervisors
Available from: 2015-04-22 Created: 2014-01-15 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(2571 kB)1789 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 2571 kBChecksum SHA-512
7c1285f734f93dba41843fb4e21dc2e917fb576968fef3efea6db49cc542abec6461bcfd37cec3f4f2ea034b4e6fd45183f1b14b0575cace2508297ceb39c3de
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

By organisation
School of Computing
Computer SciencesProbability Theory and Statistics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 1789 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

urn-nbn

Altmetric score

urn-nbn
Total: 396 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf