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Simple and Accurate Forecasting of the Market for Cellular Mobile Services
Responsible organisation
2007 (English)In: Managing Traffic Performance in Converged Networks, Berlin: Springer , 2007Chapter in book (Refereed)Alternative title
Enkel och korrekt prognosticering av marknaden för mobila tjänster (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

We consider the problems of explaining and forecasting the penetration and the traffic in cellular mobile networks. To this end, we create two regression models, viz. one to predict the penetration from service charges and network effects and another one to predict the traffic from service charges and diffusion and adoption effects. The results of the models can also be combined to compute the likely evolutions of essential characteristics such as Minutes of Use (MoU), Average Revenue per User (ARPU) and total revenue. Applying the models to 26 markets throughout the world we show that they perform very well. Noting the significant qualitative differences between these markets, we conclude that the model has some universality in that the results are comparable for all of them.

Abstract [sv]

En ekonometrisk modell för att förklara och göra prognoser på penetrationen och trafiken i mobila nätverk. Modellen testas på data från 26 olika marknader över hela världen och uppvisar god prognosförmåga och viss generalitet. Nyckelord: mobila nätverk, marknadspenetration, ekonometrisk metod

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Berlin: Springer , 2007.
Keyword [en]
mobile networks, market penetration, econometric method
National Category
Computer Science Business Administration Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:bth-8550DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-72990-7Local ID: oai:bth.se:forskinfoA98E801C35E0EBB8C125748D0046A704ISBN: 978-3-540-72989-1 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:bth-8550DiVA: diva2:836276
Note
Springer Lecture Notes in Computer Science.Available from: 2012-09-18 Created: 2008-07-21 Last updated: 2015-06-30Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf