Electric buses are growing in numbers in Sweden, which contributes to the development of a fossil fuel free society and a reduction of emissions. Earlier studies of bus systems have identified a need to further investigate societal costs, total cost of ownership, energy use on a yearly basis to account for seasonal variations, and noise during acceleration. Addressing those needs was the purpose of this study. 

Investigations were made in five cities in Sweden that have recently implemented different electric buses in their respective public transport system. Based on results from these investigations and earlier studies, updated and new calculations were made for electric buses on route 1 in Karlskrona, as a representative example. It was found that there were significant savings in societal costs and total cost of ownership when compared to diesel and biogas powered buses, mainly due to decreased noise, no emissions in the use phase, and decreased energy use.

Each year at the Blekinge Institute of Technology, in total 15-30 international master students from the Structural Dynamics and the Erasmus program take a 7.5 credit course in strategic sustainable development. In 2016, the course had rather good scoresfrom the students’ course evaluation, but the students also identified a need for improvements regarding feedback from teachers during the course and also regarding the examination of the course. A study was therefore initiated, aimed at finding out if changes in feedback and examinations can increase students’ learning towards the learning outcomes in the course, and if so, how the teaching and examination in the course could be developed in such direction. The study found through literature review, interviews among colleagues, and surveys among students that instead of a final exam, several knowledge tests and reflective questions during the course could increase the students’ learning. The course design was developed and then implemented in 2017. According to the students’ course evaluation the same year, this lead to even better perceived learning. Except from providing further evidence that students’ learning increases with individual feedback, the study showed how that can be implemented.

Electric vehicles can play an important role in a future sustainable road transport system and many Swedish politicians would like to see them implemented faster. This is likely desirable to reach the target of a fossil independent vehicle fleet in Sweden by 2030 and a greenhouse gas neutral Swedish society no later than 2050. However, to reach both these targets, and certainly to support the full scope of sustainability, it is important to consider the whole life-cycle of the vehicles and also the interaction between the transport sector and other sectors. So far, there are no plans for transitions towards a sustainable transport system applying a sufficiently wide systems perspective, in Sweden or elsewhere. This implies a great risk for sub-optimizations.

The overall aim of this work is to elaborate methodological support for development of sustainable personal road transport systems that is informed by a strategic sustainable development perspective.

The Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development (FSSD) is used as a foundation for the work to ensure a sufficiently wide systems perspective and coordinated collaboration across disciplines and sectors, both in the research and application. Maxwell’s Qualitative Research Design and the Design Research Methodology are used as overall guides for the research approach. Specific research methods and techniques include literature studies, action research seminars, interviews, and measurements of energy use, costs, and noise. Moreover, a case study on the conditions for a breakthrough for vehicles in southeast Sweden has been used as a test and development platform.

Specific results include a preliminary vision for electrical vehicles in southeast Sweden, framed by the principled sustainability definition of the FSSD, an assessment of the current reality in relation to that vision, and proposed solutions to bridge the gap, organized into a preliminary roadmap. The studies show that electric vehicles have several sustainability advantages even when their whole life-cycle is considered, provided that they are charged with electricity from new renewable sources. Electrical vehicles also imply a low total cost of ownership and could promote new local ‘green jobs’ under certain conditions. Particularly promising results are seen for electric buses in public transport. As a general result, partly based on the experiences from the specific case, a generic community planning process model is proposed and its usefulness for sustainable transport system development is discussed.

The strategic sustainable development perspective of this thesis broadens the analysis beyond the more common focus on climate change issues and reduces the risk of sub-optimizations in community and transport system development. The generic support for multi-stakeholder collaboration could potentially also promote a more participatory democratic approach to community development, grounded in a scientific foundation. Future research will explore specific decision support systems for sustainable transport development based on the generic planning process model.

The aim of this thesis was to explore if, and then how, electric cars and buses can contribute to sustainable personal mobility. Electric vehicles have increasingly been seen as a potential sustainable solution for the transport sector due to their high energy efficiency, close to zero emissions in the use phase, and the possibility to be powered by electricity from renewable resources. However, there are concerns about future scarcity of resources (e.g. lithium and cobalt for batteries), vehicle range, costs, high energy use in the production of batteries, as well as insufficient scientific support for how electric vehicles could be a part of a transition towards sustainability regarding personal mobility.  

The challenges for a fast transition towards sustainability are large and many. The transport sector is not contributing to such development, mainly due to emissions, use of fossil energy, and use of materials mined and recycled under unacceptable conditions. Furthermore, existing societal goals (e.g. fossil-fuel independent vehicle fleet by 2030 in Sweden, UN Agenda 2030, and the Paris agreement) are insufficient for sustainability and are not complemented by concrete plans or an approach for how to engage stakeholders and achieve coordinated actions for sustainability. The Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development includes a principled definition of sustainability that is necessary and sufficient for sustainability and procedural support for collaborative innovation for a strategic transition to fulfillment of that definition, which is why it has been used as an overarching methodology in this thesis. 

The research verified through several studies conditions for how electric vehicles can play a vital role in a strategic transition of personal mobility towards sustainability. Through stakeholder collaboration (e.g. interviews and workshops), a vision for sustainable transport with a focus on electric vehicles and an initial development plan towards that vision were designed. Several life cycle focused studies investigated (through calculations and data collection from literature, life cycle databases, interviews and workshops) about environmental and social impacts and costs for electric cars and buses. The stakeholder collaboration, combined with conceptual modelling, also resulted in models for generic support for multi-stakeholder collaboration and planning for strategic sustainable development of transport systems and communities, and for how to include electric buses in the procurement model of public transport.

The strategic sustainable development perspective of this thesis broadens the analysis beyond the more common focus on climate change issues and should be able to reduce the risk of sub-optimizations in community and transport system development when applied in that context. The generic support for multi-stakeholder collaboration could potentially also promote a more participatory democratic approach to community development, grounded in a scientific foundation.

Earlier studies have mainly focused on technology, economy and advantages of electric buses, and they have largely shown that electric buses could be one of the solutions for sustainable public transport. Despite this, the present procurement process for public transport in Sweden is not suitable for including support systems for electric buses. This study was aimed to find a stakeholder collaboration model that would allow electric bus systems to be more effectively included in the procurement process for public transport. The results were achieved by several multi-stakeholder collaboration seminars and meetings that included representatives from regional public transport authorities, bus operators, bus manufacturers, energy companies, municipalities, and experts involved in bus transport. The study primarily developed two stakeholder collaboration models, suggesting that charging infrastructure should be designed separately from the common procurement process. In these models, energy companies, electric grid owners, charging infrastructure operators, regional public transport authorities, and municipalities need to collaborate. The first model is designed for a system that includes chargers at certain locations along a route and/or stakeholders with a low level of experience of electric bus systems, while the second is designed for a system that includes bus charging at the depot and/or stakeholders with a high level of experience of electric bus systems.

Vehicles, infrastructure, fuel systems and other energy-driven systems that serve public transport are complex with many resource inputs and outputs, and involve many processes. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Life Cycle Costing (LCC) helps analyzing those by quantifying environmental and economic effects, but will not in themselves provide a full systems perspective. Swedish authorities have set ambitious national goals, and many regions targets a 100% increase in public transport by 2020. The medium sized city of Karlskrona (36,000 inhabitants), that is included in this study together with Sundsvall and Jönköping, embraces those goals too. This study analyzes relevant differences between bus solutions, to investigate a change to more sustainable bus propulsion systems. The study zooms down to compare energy carriers (diesel, biodiesel, biogas, and electricity) in different powertrain combinations (combustion engines, electric hybrids, and pure electric). The Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development (FSSD) where principles are defining a sustainable future is used to broaden from a cost and environmentally shortsighted perspective to a long-term sustainability perspective with systems thinking. The Strategic Life Cycle Assessment (SLCA) is first used to give a quick full scope of sustainability challenges in each bus life cycle stage from extraction to end of life. Then LCA and LCC approaches are used to” dig deeper” into prioritized identified challenges. Initial study results suggest that electric drivetrains would be preferable in city buses within the coming decade - both from an economic and a sustainability perspective. It not only lowers emissions and energy usage, but also provides a platform for future promising energy carriers.

Dagens vägtransporter hjälper människor att berika sina liv genom möjlighet till snabba, flexibla och bekväma resor, samt förbättrad tillgång till varor och tjänster. Dock bidrar dagens vägtransporter till hållbarhets- problem och andra problem såsom klimatpåverkan, buller, barriärer i landskapet och olyckor med dödlig utgång. Det svenska samhället har under de senaste decennierna börjat uppmärksamma de stora hållbarhets- utmaningarna världen står inför. Regeringen har satt mål för växthusgasneutralitet år 2050 och en fossil- oberoende fordonsflotta 2030, samt andra mer närtida miljömål. Tyvärr pekar bl.a. indikatorer i miljömåls- portalen på att de flesta av dessa mål inte kommer att uppfyllas. Samtidigt kommer bebyggda områden att förtätas och vägtransporter förväntas öka. Vägtrafikens negativa påverkan på människors hälsa kommer därför att öka om ingen förändring görs, framförallt i stads- miljö. För att bidra till hållbar utveckling behöver utsläpp från lastbilar, bussar och personbilar minska. Regionala och kommunala organisationer kan bidra till omställningen till hållbarhet bl.a. genom ökade krav på lokaltrafikens fordon så att de blir mer energieffektiva, samt avger mindre luftföroreningar och buller. Bussar med elektrifierad drivlina, som laddas med förnyelsebar ny el, är i dagsläget ett lovande alternativ för en sådan förändring. Ett högt inköpspris för eldrivna fordon är i dagsläget ett hinder i upphandling för kollektivtrafik, men det kan komma att sjunka med ökade försäljnings- volymer och teknisk utveckling, framförallt beträffande batterier. Tidigare studier visar på fördelar för eldrift av bussar i storstadsmiljöer (Stockholm, Göteborg och Malmö). Denna studie syftar till att utreda hållbarhets- implikationer och lönsamheten i att använda bussar med någon form av eldrift i kollektivtrafiken i mellan- stora städer jämfört med dagens bussar som drivs med förbränningsmotorer. Med hjälp av Blekingetrafiken, Jönköpings Länstrafik, Västernorrlands kollektivtrafik- myndighet och Volvo Technology Corporation har författarna gjort fallstudier på utvalda stadsbusslinjer i Karlskrona, Jönköping och Sundsvall. Studien tillämpar metodik för strategisk hållbar utveckling som utvecklas i en internationell vetenskaplig samverkansprocess med Blekinge Tekniska Högskola som koordinerande nod. För att bl.a. undvika suboptimeringar ur ett helhets- perspektiv (förbättringar i en fas som kan ge fler och större problem i andra faser, samt hindra global hållbar utveckling) används strategisk livscykelanalys (SLCA) för att identifiera särskilda analysområden, livscykel- analys (LCA) för kvantifiering av emissioner, och livs- cykelkostnadsanalys (LCC) för beräkning av lönsamhet och konkurrenskraft. Beräkningar baseras på tidigare studier och dessa kom- pletteras och verifieras genom simulering av energi- användning för respektive linje. Författarna har valt att studera energibärare då dessa utgör största skillnaden mellan traditionella fossildrivna bussar och de som drivs med el i någon form. Studien utgår från diesel med 5 % FAME/RME och lokalt producerad förnybar ny el från källor som per år ger mer till nätet än vad som tas ut, exempelvis genom s.k. vindkraftsandelar. Eldrift förekommer i tre varianter varav två är hybrider. Primär drivkälla för elhybrid är förbränningsmotorn, vilket förväntas spara i snitt 33 % energi gentemot en dieseldriven buss. Laddhybrid drivs primärt av elmotor med batterier (laddas internt och externt) samt i andra hand av förbränningsmotor, men kan styras till att bli 100 % eldriven. För att utreda lämpligt biobränsle för dessa studeras lokalt framställd biogas ur hushållsavfall och biodiesel (RME) från lokalt odlad raps. Det senare har ur tillgänglighetssynpunkt valts som bränsle till elhybrid och laddhybrid i denna studie. Slutsatserna från studien är att bussar för stadstrafik i medelstora städer som primärt drivs av el (från lokala vindkraftsandelar) jämfört med dieseldrift är... ... tydligt bättre i alla livscykelfaser beträffande energi- effektivisering och emissioner bidragande till växt- huseffekt, försurning, övergödning, skapande av marknära ozon, och partiklar. Detta trots nyttjande av knappa material som Litium i batterier. Det finns också potential till radikal minskning av ljudnivån på bullriga platser. En elhybrid- eller laddhybrid- buss bör ur miljösynpunkt drivas med biogas. ... enligt ekonomisk nuvärdeskalkyl ekonomiskt kon- kurrenskraftiga när anskaffning av laddinfrastruktur (en extra snabbladdare), fordon, samt underhålls- kostnader (med 1 batteribyte), energianvändning (årlig prisökning med 6 %) inkluderas. Elhybrid är 7 %, laddhybrid 18 % och helt eldriven buss 24 % billigare än dieseldrift i Karlskrona (linje 1/7). Lokalt producerad förnybar ny el ger dessutom nya lokala och regionala arbetstillfällen, vilket kan värderas mer än det gjorts i denna studie. ... om något år ekonomiskt lönsamma för linjer vars sträckning kräver mer än 5 snabbladdningsstationer. Resultaten visar på vissa skillnader mellan de studerade städerna, som till största del beror på utnyttjandegraden av bussar, linjernas karaktär, samt stadens storlek och ventilationsfaktorn. Förbättringar ur miljösynpunkt jämfört med dieseldrift är ganska lika i de studerade städerna, men besparingspotentialen (i kronor) för elhybrid-, laddhybrid och el-drift är störst i Karlskrona.

From a theoretical perspective, Electric buses can be more sustainable and can be cheaper than fossil fuelled buses in city traffic. The authors have not found other studies based on actual urban public transport in Swedish winter climate. Further on, noise measurements from buses for the European market where found old. The aims of this follow-up study was therefore to test and possibly verify in a real-life environment how energy efficient and silent electric buses are, and then conclude on if electric buses are preferable to use in public transport. The Ebusco 2.0 electric bus, fitted with a 311 kWh battery pack, was used and the tests carried out during November 2014 to April 2015 in eight municipalities in the south of Sweden. Six tests took place in urban traffic and two took place in more of a rural traffic setting. The energy use for propulsion was measured via logging of the internal system in the bus and via an external charging meter. The average energy use turned out to be 8 % less (0,96 kWh/km) than assumed in the earlier theoretical study. This rate allows for a 320 km range in public urban traffic. The interior of the bus was kept warm by a diesel heater (biodiesel will probably be used in a future operational traffic situation), which used 0,67 kWh/km in January. This verified that electric buses can be up to 25% cheaper when used in public transport in cities for about eight years. The noise was found to be lower, primarily during acceleration, than for buses with combustion engines in urban bus traffic. According to our surveys, most passengers and drivers appreciated the silent and comfortable ride and preferred electric buses rather than combustion engine buses. Bus operators and passenger transport executives were also positive to start using electric buses for public transport. The operators did however point out that procurement processes need to account for eventual risks regarding this new technology, along with personnel education. The study revealed that it is possible to establish a charging infrastructure for almost all studied bus lines. However, design of a charging infrastructure for each municipality requires further investigations, including electric grid capacity analysis, smart location of charging points, and tailored schedules to allow fast charging. In conclusion, electric buses proved to be a preferable alternative for all stakeholders involved in public bus transport in the studied municipalities. However, in order to electric buses to be a prominent support for sustainable development, they need to be charged either by stand-alone units or via an expansion of the electric grid, and the electricity should be made from new renewable sources.

GreenCharge Sydost är en sammanslutning av regionförbund, kommuner, landsting och företag medett övergripande syfte att främja införandet av elfordon i främst sydöstra Sverige. Blekinge TekniskaHögskola är huvudman för projektet med ansvar för att driva forskningen, och Miljöfordon Syd attdriva den operativa projektledningen avseende demonstrationer och samverkan med intressenter.Under 2013 gjorde forskningen inom GreenCharge en beräkningsstudie som påvisade att elbussar urett livscykelperspektiv har mycket mindre utsläpp än dagens dieselbussar och totalkostnaden skullekunna bli 25 % lägre över en 8-års period i Karlskrona på linje 1 och 7, 21 % i Jönköping på linje 1och 3, samt 17 % i Sundsvall på linje 2 och 4. Detta gäller under antagande att bussen drivs med nygrön el, att realränteökningen blir 1 % per år samt att energi-pristrender sedan 10 år tillbaka fortsättergälla framöver.. Beräkningsstudien antog också efter simuleringar utifrån befintliga linjer och aktuellavärden från busstillverkare en energianvändning på 1,04 kWh/km för eldrift.

Electric vehicles seem to offer a great potential for sustainable transport development. The Swedish pioneer project GreenCharge Southeast is designed as a cooperative action research approach that aims to explore a roadmap for a fossil-free transport system by 2030 with a focus on electric vehicles. In the first paper of this tandem publication, the authors propose a new generic process model embedding the Framework of Strategic Sustainable Development. The purpose of applying it in an action-research mode as described in this paper was twofold: (i) to develop a vision for sustainable regional transport and a coarse roadmap towards that vision, and, while doing so, (ii) get additional empirical experiences to inform the development of the new generic process model. Experts from many sectors and organizations involved in the GreenCharge project provided vital information and reviewed all planning perspectives presented in Paper 1 in two sequential multi-stakeholder seminars. The results include a sustainable vision for electric vehicle systems in southeast Sweden within a sustainable regional transport system within a sustainable global society, as well as an initial development plan towards such a vision for the transport sector. The vision is framed by the universal sustainability principles, and the development plan is informed by the strategic guidelines, of the above-mentioned framework. Among other things, the vision and plan imply a shift to renewable energy and a more optimized use of areas and thus a new type of spatial planning. For example, the vision and plan implies a lower built-in demand for transport, more integrated traffic modes, and more multi-functional use of areas for energy and transport infrastructures, for example. Some inherent benefits of electric vehicles are highlighted in the vision and plan, including near-zero local emissions and flexibility as regards primary energy sources. The vision and plan also imply improved governance for more effective cross-sector collaboration to ensure coor- dinated development within the transport sector and between the transportation sector and other relevant sectors. Meanwhile, the new generic process model was refined and is ready to be applied and further tested in the GreenCharge project and in other projects within the transport sector as well as other sectors. The study confirmed that the new generic process model suggested in support of sus- tainable transport system and community development is helpful for giving diverse stakeholders, with various specialties and perspectives, a way of working that is goal-oriented and builds on effective, iterative learning loops and co-creation. 

Ambitions within the EU for moving towards sustainable transport include major emission reductions for fossil fuel road vehicles, especially for buses, trucks, and cars. The electric driveline seems to be an attractive solution for such development. This study first applied the Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development to compare sustainability effects of today’s fossil fuel vehicles with electric vehicles that have batteries or hydrogen fuel cells. The study then addressed a scenario were electric vehicles might be in majority in Europe by 2050. The methodology called Strategic Lifecycle Assessment was first used, were each life cycle phase was assessed for violations against sustainability principles. This indicates where further analysis could be done in order to quantify the magnitude of each violation, and later to create alternative strategies and actions that lead towards sustainability. A Life Cycle Assessment of combustion engine cars, plug-in hybrid cars, battery electric cars and hydrogen fuel cell cars was then conducted to compare and quantify environmental impacts. The authors found major violations of sustainability principles like use of fossil fuels, which contribute to the increase of emission related impacts such as climate change, acidification, eutrophication, ozone depletion, and particulate matters. Other violations were found, such as use of scarce materials for batteries and fuel cells, and also for most life cycle phases for all vehicles when using fossil fuel vehicles for mining, production and transport. Still, the studied current battery and hydrogen fuel cell cars have less severe violations than fossil fuel cars. The life cycle assessment revealed that fossil fuel cars have overall considerably higher environmental impacts compared to electric cars as long as the latter are powered by renewable electricity. By 2050, there will likely be even more sustainable alternatives than the studied electric vehicles when the EU electricity mix mainly should stem from renewable sources, batteries should be recycled, fuel cells should be a mature technology for use in vehicles (containing no scarce materials), and electric drivelines should have replaced combustion engines in other sectors. An uncertainty for fuel cells in 2050 is whether the production of hydrogen will have had time to switch to renewable resources. If so, that would contribute even more to a sustainable development. Except for being adopted in the GreenCharge roadmap, the authors suggest that the results can contribute to planning in the upcoming decades for a sustainable increase of EVs in Europe, and potentially serve as an inspiration for other smaller or larger regions. Further studies could map the environmental effects in LCA further, and include other road vehicles to get a more precise perception of how much they could affect sustainable development.

The current public transport offers in the South Baltic region seldom meet customer expectations for easiness and attractivity of cross-border/regional journeys and rarely include integrated tickets for multimodal rides. To address that, stakeholders from six regions around the southern Baltic Sea developed the INTERCONNECT project that was guided by a holistic perspective on sustainability. Informed by that, this paper's objective was to propose a tool/method containing a planning process with a comprehensive and on-line open-access catalogue of solutions for sustainable cross-border/regional public transport services to inspire and guide planning and decision-making. The tool/method that was developed in this paper include a 7-step process and a catalogue of 42 solutions that were developed through several workshops and discussions among the authors and other experts in the field. The findings were compared and integrated with literature findings, practical experiences, then assessed against a principled definition of sustainability, and finally scrutinized and reviewed by project partners and external experts. The authors expect the results to sufficiently cover possible solutions for strategic sustainable development of cross-border/regional public transport and to inspire further development in other regions with similar infrastructure and financial means. © 2021 Owner/Author.

Without experiences of electric buses, public transport authorities and bus operators have faced questions about how to implement them in a cost-effective way. Simple cost modelling cannot show how costs for different types of electric buses differ between different routes and timetables. Tools (e.g., HASTUS, PtMS, and optibus) which can analyse such details are complicated, time consuming to use, and provide insufficient insights into the mechanisms that influence the cost. This paper therefore proposes a method for how to calculate total cost of ownership, for different types of electric buses, in a way which can predict how the cost varies based on route and timetable. The method excludes factors which cause minor cost variations in an almost random manor, in order to better show the fundamental mechanisms influencing different costs. The method will help in finding ways to reduce the cost and help to define a few cases which deserve a deep analysis with more complete tools. Testing of the method in a Swedish context showed that the results are in line with other theoretical and practical studies, and how the total cost of ownership can vary depending on the variables.

To reach Swedish national climate change reduction targets, organizations collaborate for a sustainable development to improve energy efficiency, reducing pollution and noise in public bus transport. This follow-up study continues to strengthen the previous study by deepen the economic comparisons of two electric buses with different driving range and different type of chargers. The study aims to emphasize on sensitivity analysis for the total cost of ownership (TCO) to reduce uncertainty by identifying which factors of interest that most likely cause the estimated cost values for the electric bus. The result shows that the percentage change of line distance (km/year), operational years, and investment cost would be the most influential and significant factors on TCO.

European national, regional, and local authorities have started to take action to make public bus transport services more effective and less polluting. Some see the possibility to move beyond a narrow focus on efficiency or carbon dioxide reductions towards an integrated sustainability perspective. This paper uses this perspective to build and test a new assessment approach that should enhance decisions on bus transport powertrains and energy carriers for Swedish medium-sized cities. The study suggests that a superiority of electric powertrains is revealed if a traditional economic analysis is integrated with a strategic sustainability perspective.

This article aims to develop and test a new approach for comparing sustainability effects (mainly approximated through CO₂ emissions) and the total cost of ownership of various business models (Regular Purchasing, Car Pooling, Car Leasing, and Taxiing) applied to private cars with different energy carriers (Biogas, Ethanol, Gasoline, Plug-in Hybrid, and Electric). The results indicate that, out of all of the vehicles, electric vehicles are the most competitive—from both an ecological and economic perspective. Moreover, of all of the business models, Car Pooling is the most competitive when driving short to medium distances, reducing CO₂ emissions by 20-40% compared with Regular Purchasing. Meanwhile, Car Leasing emits the same amount of CO₂ emissions as Regular Purchasing if both are driven the same number of kilometers per year. The results also indicate that, from a cost effectiveness perspective, people who travel less than 2000 km per year should primarily consider using Taxis or similar services, while Car Pooling is most cost effective for those who travel from 2000 to 8500 km. For those who travel between 8500 and 13500 km per year, Car Leasing is the most cost effective, and Regular Purchasing is the best option above 13500 km per year. If most car owners were to accept and adapt to this identified need for a market move towards Car Pooling with Electric Vehicles, necessary transportation could be ensured while significantly reducing the number of cars on the road, whether from Regular Purchasing or Car Leasing, as well as those that run on fossil fuel. This, in turn, would result in less fossil fuel use, fewer emissions, and decreased negative effects on human health.

The study was conducted in 2020 by The SustainTrans team at Blekinge Institute of Technology with support fromNetPort Science park as a pre-study within the Roadmapper project, an effort to accelerate regional transitions to sustainable transport.This particular pre-study was financed by the municipalities of Karlshamn, Olofström and Sölvesborgbut it also benefits the larger Roadmapper project that, in turn, is supported by a whole consortium of public and private organizations, led by the Swedish Energy Agency. The preliminary resultswere reported to themunicipalitiesin December 2020but thescientific review of the studywas finalized in March2021. 

Medan Sverige är en global föregångare inom hållbar utveckling betonar Klimatpolitiska rådet 2019 att hållbarhetsåtgärderna är för långsamma för att uppfylla de aktuella målen, särskilt när det gäller transport och stadsmiljö. Regional utveckling och kommunal fysisk planering spelar avgörande roller i förändringsprocessen eftersom planerare och strateger behöver ta itu med internationella avtal såsom Parisavtalet, Agenda 2030 och Den nya urbana agendan, samt svara på nationella mål och lokala prioriteringar. Det finns indikationer på att otillräcklig samordning mellan de nationella, regionala och lokala planeringsinsatserna är en nyckelfaktor bakom misslyckandet med att hålla sig på rätt spår. För att hjälpa till att hantera denna brist engagerade planerare från Region Blekinge i sydöstra Sverige SustainTrans-gruppen från Institutionen för Strategisk hållbar utveckling vid Blekinge Tekniska Högskola för att bana väg för en scenarioplaneringsstrategi över en 30-årig horisont (till 2050). Tanken var att ta fram åtminstone tre scenarier och att få med regionala, lokala och några relevanta nationella intressenter i genomförandet. Som ett minimum skulle de fyra identifierade nyckelområdena från projektet Strukturbild Blekinge 2.0 täckas in i studien:

Blekinges övergripande utveckling (exempelvis befolkningsutveckling)Arbetsmarknad, näringsliv och turismAttraktiva stads- och livsmiljöerInfrastruktur och transport

Rapportförfattarna från SustainTrans-gruppen arbetade iterativt med befintliga kunskaper, statistiska data och resultat från en intressent-workshop. Ett startläge identifierades och fyra utforskande scenarier togs fram och strukturerades efter de sannolika effekterna av höga och låga regionala hållbarhetsinsatser respektive hög och låg befolkningstillväxt: 

’Tveksamma Blekinge’ (oförändrad befolkning/ ej hållbart)’Blind tillväxt’ (ökad befolkning / ej hållbart)’Hållbarare Blekinge’ (oförändrad befolkning/ hållbart)’Nystart Blekinge’ (ökad befolkning/ hållbart)

Scenarioprocessen inkluderade alla nyckelområdena från Strukturbild Blekinge 2.0 som viktiga utvecklingsområden och resulterade i bredare samtal mellan offentliga intressenter. Detta kommer också förhoppningsvis lägga en grund för ökad samordning och integration mellan dessa organisationer.

Baserat på intressenternas synpunkter på scenarierna från workshopen, blev rapportförfattarnas bedömning att scenarierna ’Tveksamma Blekinge’ och ’Blind tillväxt’ skulle få för många negativa konsekvenser. Detta kunde ju också förväntas med tanke på scenariernas namn men mer specifikt handlade det om att det förstnämnda scenariot ge en gradvis nedgång medan det senare på sikt ge verkligt destruktiva resultat för livskvaliteten, naturen och samhällsekonomin. ’Hållbarare Blekinge’ och ’Nystart Blekinge’ bedömdes å andra sidan vara bättre eftersom de troligen skulle säkerställa en god livskvalitet. Med det senare scenariot kan den högre folkmängden sannolikt också ge extra fördelar som högre skatteinkomster och en mer välmående region. Det finns dock en risk att befolkningsökningen kan hämma hållbarhetsprestanda om den skulle drivas för långt.

En åtgärd som identifierades som avgörande för att slå in på spåret till något av de föredragna scenarierna var att stärka planeringsfokus för nya bostäder till täta blandade samhällen inom det befintliga urbana fotavtrycket. Det finns samtidigt regionala gränser för tillväxt som är svåra att uppskatta med den begränsade typen av kvalitativa bedömningar som denna studie skulle täcka. Därför rekommenderas att fler studier görs som bygger vidare på scenarierna, går in i mer detaljerad kvantitativ modellering och bygger färdplaner för ett attraktivt och hållbart Blekinge 2050.

Electric vehicles seem to offer a great potential for sustainable transport development. The Swedish pioneer project GreenCharge Southeast is designed as a cooperative action research approach that aims to explore a roadmap for a fossil-free transport system by 2030 with a focus on electric vehicles. It is the following combination of objectives that puts demand on a new process model adapted for cross-sector and cross-disciplinary cooperation: (i) a fossil-free transport system in Sweden by 2030 and, to avoid sub-optimizations in the transport sector, (ii) assuring that solutions that support (i) also serve other aspects of sustainability in the transport sector and, to avoid that sustainable solutions in the transport sector block sustainable solutions in other sectors, (iii) assuring cohesive creativity across sectors and groups of experts and stakeholders. The new process model was applied in an action-research mode for the exploration of electric vehicles within a fully sustainable transport system to test the functionality of the model in support of its development. To deliver on the above combination of objectives, a framework was needed with principles for sustainability that are universal for any sector as boundary conditions for redesign, and with guidelines for how any organization or sector can create economically feasible step- by-step transition plans. The Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development (FSSD) is designed to serve such purposes and therefore is embedded into the new process model. The exploration of this new model also helped to identify four interdependent planning perspectives (‘Resource base’, ‘Spatial’, ‘Technical’ and ‘Governance’) that should be represented by the respective experts and stakeholders using the model. In general, the new process model proved helpful by giving diverse stakeholders with various competences and representing various planning perspectives a common, robust, and easy-to- understand goal and a way of working that was adequate for each of their contexts. Furthermore, the evolving process model likely is relevant and useful not only for transport planning and electric vehicles, but for any other societal sector as well and thus for sustainable community planning in general. 

This paper presents a case study of a transdisciplinary scenario planning workshop that was designed to link global challenges to local governance. The workshop was held to improve stakeholder integration and explore scenarios for a regional planning project (to 2050) in Blekinge, Sweden. Scenario planning and transdisciplinary practices are often disregarded by practitioners due to the perception of onerous resource requirements, however, this paper describes a ‘rapid scenario planning’ process that was designed to be agile and time-efficient, requiring the 43 participants from 13 stakeholder organizations to gather only for one day. The process was designed to create an environment whereby stakeholders could learn from, and with, each other and use their expert knowledge to inform the scenario process. The Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development (FSSD) was used to structure and focus the scenario planning exercise and its subsequent recommendations. The process was evaluated through a workshop participant survey and post-workshop evaluative interview with the regional government project manager to indicate the effectiveness of the approach. The paper closes with a summary of findings which will support those wishing to conduct similar rapid scenario planning exercises to inform policy planning for complex systems.