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  • 1. Arvidsson, Åke
    et al.
    Hederstierna, Anders
    Hellmer, Stefan
    Forecasting Cellular Mobile Traffic: An Econometric Approach2006Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We consider the problem of explaining and forecasting the volume of cellular mobile traffic in a long-term perspective. To this end, we create a model of a market with both economic and non-economic variables, viz. the state of the economy, the current price level and the penetration effect on the market in question. We measure these variables by using publicly available data and by applying income theories and by combining theories of demand and technology diffusion. Applying the model to three markets, viz. China, Italy and Sweden, we show that it performs very well in explaining and predicting the volume of cellular mobile traffic. Noting the qualitative differences between these markets, we conclude that the model has some universality in that the results are comparable for all of them

  • 2. Arvidsson, Åke
    et al.
    Hederstierna, Anders
    Hellmer, Stefan
    Simple and Accurate Forecasting of the Market for Cellular Mobile Services2007In: Managing Traffic Performance in Converged Networks, Berlin: Springer , 2007Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We consider the problems of explaining and forecasting the penetration and the traffic in cellular mobile networks. To this end, we create two regression models, viz. one to predict the penetration from service charges and network effects and another one to predict the traffic from service charges and diffusion and adoption effects. The results of the models can also be combined to compute the likely evolutions of essential characteristics such as Minutes of Use (MoU), Average Revenue per User (ARPU) and total revenue. Applying the models to 26 markets throughout the world we show that they perform very well. Noting the significant qualitative differences between these markets, we conclude that the model has some universality in that the results are comparable for all of them.

  • 3. Davidsson, Paul
    et al.
    Hederstierna, Anders
    Jacobsson, Andreas
    Persson, Jan A.
    The Concept and Technology of Plug and Play Business2006Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 4. Dzamashvili-Fogelström, Nina
    et al.
    Barney, Sebastian
    Aurum, Aybüke
    Hederstierna, Anders
    When Product Managers Gamble with Requirements: Attitudes to Value and Risk2009Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Context and motivation: Finding a balance between commercial (customer specific, market pull and external quality requirements) and internal quality requirements is a recognized challenge in market driven software product development (MDSPD). In order to address this challenge it is important to understand the preferences and biases influencing decision makers selecting requirements for software releases. Question/problem: Prospect theory has been successfully applied to many disciplines. Applying it to MDSPD suggests decision makers will avoid risk when selecting between commercial requirements, take risk with internal quality requirements, and prefer commercial requirements over internal quality requirements in order to maximize their perceived value. This paper seeks to investigate this claim. Principal ideas/results: This paper presents an experiment investigating whether the biases proposed by prospect theory can be seen operating in MDSPD requirements engineering (RE). The results indicate risk avoidance when dealing commercial requirements, while greater risk is taken when dealing with internal quality requirements. Contribution: As this is the first paper to use prospect theory to explain requirements selection decisions, it presents opportunity to educate people in the biases they bring to the RE process, and facilitate the creation of strategies for balancing the different requirements types.

  • 5.
    Hederstierna, Anders
    Blekinge Institute of Technology, School of Management.
    Förstudie Priselasticitet2004Report (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Rapporten visar att det finns två faktorer som begränsar konkurrensen för den operation som krävs för att ta betalt för mobila tjänster. Den ena faktorn är att betaloperationen kräver information om vem som ska betala och hur mycket. Rådata till denna information kommer från mobiloperatörens nät och är alltså en unik och samtidigt nödvändig resurs för att hantera betalningen, med undantag för de fall när betalningen görs i förväg. Den andra faktorn är att den som först lyckas uppnå stordriftsfördelar i betaloperationen kan ef-fektivt hindra andra aktörer från att träda in på marknaden. Stordriftsförde-larna är extra viktiga när de mobila tjänsterna är så enkla och köps så sällan att priserna bir låga och betalningarna extremt små, s.k. mikrobetalningar. Det är möjligt att morgondagens mobila tjänster inte kommer att kräva mik-robetalningar och då minskar effekten av den faktor som har att göra med stordriftsfördelar. Samtidigt visar mobiloperatörer och banker ett stort intres-se av att skaffa sig ännu större konkurrensfördelar på marknaden för mikro-betalningar med nya system för att använda mobiltelefonen som betalnings-terminal.

  • 6. Hederstierna, Anders
    et al.
    Sällberg, Henrik
    Bronze, Silver and Gold: Effective Membership Design in Customer Rewards Programs2008Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Many companies use rewards programs to create so called “loyal” customers. Information Technology (IT) has made it possible to design such incentive programs with in principle endless variations at a low cost. It means that the company can, with the use of IT, offer non-linear incentives that create “loyal” customers more effectively than linear ones. Internet has also reduced the cost for the customer to search and compare products and services like air flights, hotels etc. In such a competitive context, the company can use the programs to gain an advantage with a differentiated offer to the customer and to create lock-in effects still at a low IT cost. Field observations show surprisingly that programs look very much alike and do not present as much variation as could be expected. Of special interest in this paper is the fact that companies typically offer three, or less, membership levels to increase the incentive for the customer to spend money at the company. These three levels come in different versions like, for example, “Bronze”, “Silver” and “Gold” or with similar labels. The reward to the customer is generally associated and accelerated with membership level. In this paper, we analyze the consequences of using membership levels as a way to create both competitive differentiation and effective customer incentives. We suggest a model for understanding how the consumer decides on spending at a company that offers a reward program with different membership levels. The decision setting for the customer is described as a risky contract with a risky time-state-contingent claim. The contract is risky since the terms and conditions for membership can be altered by the company, without any legal penalties. The claim is risky since it is uncertain to the customer whether the state required for the membership will be achieved. We show with the help of this model that the present use of a small number of membership levels could be questioned as the most effective incentive mechanism.

  • 7. Helgeson, Bo
    et al.
    Hardemo, Isa
    Olofsson, Sarah
    Pettersson, Mårten
    Hederstierna, Anders
    Wrenne, Anders
    Hallqvist, Klas
    Innovation for future mobile services2003Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The mobile telecom industry has developed a substantial amount of mobile services that have attracted few end-users. The new mobile telephony systems will offer even more possibilities to develop mobile services, and frequent use of mobile services is necessary to warrant the high investment cost in those systems. But how do we then meet users and their needs with continued development of mobile services and prod-ucts? In this project we have started a work to find new ways to identify and screen new possible mobile services. The approach is based on ethnographic studies and economic modeling of everyday work. The project has resulted in a “prototype” method where Work Practice studies are combined with a fairly simple economical screening model. In a pilot study like this it is not possible to solve the fundamental problems of the mobile industry, but it could be seen as a beginning of a work of reconnaissance. We have identified some exciting possibilities, but also some considerable problems. In or-der to be successful, the innovation process needs to be accompanied by a parallel de-velopment of new business models that supports the development of services that ad-dresses the end-users needs. There is also a need for research to understand how inno-vations from “outside” are received and processed in organizations and together with industry increase the effectiveness of the whole innovation process. This pilot study has produced valuable experiences for a continued work. The pro-ject have also resulted in a long list of suggestions for new or refined mobile services. Most of the suggestions could be seen as derivatives of existing services. In one way you could therefore question the “innovation effectiveness” of the method. But the used methods could be seen as a starting point for further development in order to address the question of how to organize environments and processes for real innovation.

  • 8.
    Sällberg, Henrik
    et al.
    Blekinge Institute of Technology, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Industrial Economics.
    Hederstierna, Anders
    Blekinge Institute of Technology.
    Bronze, silver, and gold: Effective membership design in customer rewards programs2009In: Electronic Journal of Information Systems Evaluation, ISSN 1566-6379, E-ISSN 1566-6379, Vol. 12, no 1, p. 59-66Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Many companies use rewards programs to create so called “loyal” customers. Information Technology (IT) has made it possible to design such incentive programs in principle with endless variations at a low cost. It means that the company can, with the use of IT, offer non-linear incentives that create “loyal” customers more effectively than linear ones. Internet has also reduced the cost for the customer to search and compare products and services like air flights, hotels etc. In such a competitive context, the company can use the programs to gain an advantage with a differentiated offer to the customer and to create lock-in effects still at a low IT cost. Field observations show surprisingly that programs look very much alike and do not present as much variation as could be expected. Of special interest in this paper is the fact that companies typically offer three, or less, membership levels to increase the incentive for the customer to spend money at the company. These three levels come in different versions like, for example, “Bronze”, “Silver” and “Gold” or with similar labels. The reward to the customer is generally associated and accelerated with membership level. In this paper, we analyze the consequences of using membership levels as a way to create both competitive differentiation and effective customer incentives. We suggest a model for understanding how the consumer decides on spending at a company that offers a reward program with different membership levels. The decision setting for the customer is described as a risky contract with a risky time-state-contingent claim. The contract is risky since the terms and conditions for membership can be altered by the company, without any legal penalties. The claim is risky since it is uncertain to the customer whether the state required for the membership will be achieved. We show with the help of this model that the present use of a small number of membership levels could be questioned as the most effective incentive mechanism.

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