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Evolution of Technical Debt in Large-Scale Software Systems
Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Fakulteten för datavetenskaper, Institutionen för programvaruteknik.ORCID-id: 0009-0004-5806-6624
2026 (Engelska)Licentiatavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

Context: Technical debt (TD) has emerged as an important research topic in software engineering, reflecting the long-term negative consequences of suboptimal design decisions. A significant effort has been made towards TD identification, classification, prioritization, and management. Nevertheless, empirical evidence on how TD evolves in industrial, large-scale software systems and how it relates to architectural complexity and delivery performance remains scarce.

Objective: The objective of this thesis is to develop an empirical understanding of the evolution of TD in large-scale software systems and its relationship with architectural complexity indicators and software delivery performance. Understanding TD evolution and these relationships is crucial for making informed decisions regarding maintenance, refactoring, and resource allocation.

Methodology: This thesis includes empirical case studies employing a mixed methods research approach, combining longitudinal case studies with qualitative insights from practitioners. We collected quantitative data on TD, complexity indicators, lead time, and size by mining software repositories using tools such as SonarQube and Jira. Qualitative data were collected through structured discussions, semi-structured interviews, and focus groups. To analyze quantitative data, we used robust statistical methods, while qualitative data were analyzed thematically and mapped to the quantitative findings.

Results: The findings indicate that TD exhibits distinct temporal patterns across the architectural styles studied. Furthermore, complexity indicators generally increase over time and co-evolve with TD. The thesis identifies four interconnected architectural challenge areas that contextualize the observed trends in architectural complexity. Finally, extending the investigation to software delivery performance, no consistent association is observed between TD and lead time across the studied components.

Conclusions: TD evolution is a complex, context-dependent phenomenon influenced by architectural, organizational, and human factors, as well as technical aspects such as code quality. The findings emphasize the importance of continuous monitoring, context-aware interpretation, and the integration of both technical and socio-technical perspectives to effectively manage TD in practice.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Karlskrona: Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, 2026. , s. 141
Serie
Blekinge Institute of Technology Licentiate Dissertation Series, ISSN 1650-2140 ; 2026:04
Nyckelord [en]
Technical Debt Evolution, Architectural Complexity, Large-Scale Software Systems, Software Delivery Performance
Nationell ämneskategori
Programvaruteknik
Forskningsämne
Programvaruteknik
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:bth-29845ISBN: 978-91-7295-529-5 (tryckt)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:bth-29845DiVA, id: diva2:2079463
Presentation
2026-09-02, J1630, Valhallavägen 1, Karlskrona, 13:00 (Engelska)
Opponent
Handledare
Ingår i projekt
SERT- Software Engineering ReThought, KK-stiftelsenTillgänglig från: 2026-08-04 Skapad: 2026-06-25 Senast uppdaterad: 2026-09-01Bibliografiskt granskad
Delarbeten
1. Exploring the evolution of technical debt in monolithic and hybrid microservice architecture: An industrial case study
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Exploring the evolution of technical debt in monolithic and hybrid microservice architecture: An industrial case study
2026 (Engelska)Ingår i: Journal of Systems and Software, ISSN 0164-1212, E-ISSN 1873-1228, Vol. 237, artikel-id 112831Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

Organizations often migrate monolithic architectures to microservices based on ad hoc data, expert opinions, or industry trends without assessing their specific context and needs. Such transitions tend to coincide with increased architectural complexity and technical debt (TD), making it crucial to understand how TD evolves over time in industrial settings to manage it effectively. This observational study explores the evolution of technical debt density (TDD) in a single software product consisting of both monolithic and microservice architectures at a Swedish fintech company, without aiming to establish causality between architectural styles and TDD trends. We further investigate TDD trends across various microservice size categories, team types, and the relationship between size and TDD. We analyzed SonarQube TD data collected from one monolith and 78 microservices from August 2022 to December 2024, and conducted semi-structured interviews with practitioners (a development manager, a product owner, and a lead developer) to validate and contextualize the quantitative findings. Our results show that, in this case, the monolithic system exhibits a decreasing TDD trend over time despite continued growth in size, while a gradual increase in TDD is observed across microservices. Furthermore, TDD trends appear inconsistent among small microservices, more consistently growing in medium-sized microservices, and comparatively stable in larger services. Differences in TDD trends are observed across services owned by platform teams and product teams. Overall, the findings from this specific case suggest that TDD evolves differently in monolith and microservices, highlighting the importance of continuous monitoring and context-aware interpretation of TDD trends in practice. 

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Elsevier, 2026
Nyckelord
Case study, Microservices, Monolith, Software architecture, Technical debt, Architectural design, Case-studies, Expert opinion, Industrial case study, Industrial settings, Industry trends, Microservice, Monolithic architecture, Monolithics, Technical debts
Nationell ämneskategori
Programvaruteknik
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:bth-29433 (URN)10.1016/j.jss.2026.112831 (DOI)001730374800001 ()2-s2.0-105033743010 (Scopus ID)
Forskningsfinansiär
KK-stiftelsen, 20180010
Tillgänglig från: 2026-04-17 Skapad: 2026-04-17 Senast uppdaterad: 2026-06-25Bibliografiskt granskad
2. Temporal Evolution of Architectural Complexity and Technical Debt in Microservices: An Exploratory Case Study
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Temporal Evolution of Architectural Complexity and Technical Debt in Microservices: An Exploratory Case Study
2026 (Engelska)Ingår i: Product-Focused Software Process Improvement: 26th International Conference, PROFES 2025, Salerno, Italy, December 1–3, 2025, Proceedings / [ed] Scanniello G., Romano S., Francese R., Lenarduzzi V., Vegas S., Springer Science+Business Media B.V., 2026, s. 285-302Konferensbidrag, Publicerat paper (Refereegranskat)
Abstract [en]

Over the last decade, software organizations have increasingly adopted microservices to effectively deal with evolving software systems, frequent demands for new features, and changing technologies. However, microservices are not a silver bullet; their success depends on the specific context and needs of each organization. Therefore, tracking the evolution of architectural complexity indicators is crucial for effective architectural governance and decision-making. In this paper, we explore the relationship between architectural complexity indicators and their evolution, specifically declared dependencies, API endpoints, inter-service communications, size, and technical debt. We used the static source code analysis methods along with SonarQube to measure architectural complexity, collecting data on all indicators over the past two and a half years. Our findings indicate that architectural complexity consistently grows, even within microservices. Most importantly, these indicators co-evolve, making the overall architecture more complicated than expected. Additionally, all complexity indicators grow rapidly when services are small and still evolving. The insights gained from this study can assist organizations in effectively managing their microservices, highlighting when they might be most prone to architectural degradation. 

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Springer Science+Business Media B.V., 2026
Serie
Lecture Notes in Computer Science, ISSN 0302-9743 ; 16361
Nyckelord
Architectural Complexity, Complexity Evolution, Industrial Case Study, Microservices Architecture, Technical Debt, Architecture, Complexity indicators, Exploratory case studies, Microservice architecture, Software organization, Software-systems, Technical debts, Temporal evolution, Computer software
Nationell ämneskategori
Programvaruteknik
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:bth-28987 (URN)10.1007/978-3-032-12089-2_18 (DOI)001718768800018 ()2-s2.0-105023329652 (Scopus ID)9783032120885 (ISBN)
Konferens
26th International Conference on Product-Focused Software Process Improvement, PROFES 2025, Salerno, Dec 1-3, 2025
Forskningsfinansiär
KK-stiftelsen, 20180010
Tillgänglig från: 2025-12-12 Skapad: 2025-12-12 Senast uppdaterad: 2026-06-25Bibliografiskt granskad
3. Architecture Degradation at Scale: Challenges and Insights from Practice
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Architecture Degradation at Scale: Challenges and Insights from Practice
2026 (Engelska)Ingår i: Product-Focused Software Process Improvement: 26th International Conference, PROFES 2025, Salerno, Italy, December 1–3, 2025, Proceedings / [ed] Scanniello G., Romano S., Francese R., Lenarduzzi V., Vegas S., Springer Science+Business Media B.V., 2026, s. 451-460Konferensbidrag, Publicerat paper (Refereegranskat)
Abstract [en]

Large-scale software systems often experience architectural degradation, affecting maintainability, scalability, and quality. To investigate this, we conducted focus groups with senior practitioners across three large organizations. Our analysis revealed four core challenge areas: managing dependencies, ownership and organizational barriers, balancing agility with stability and cost, as well as documentation drift. These findings offer practical insights for mitigating architectural degradation in complex environments. 

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Springer Science+Business Media B.V., 2026
Serie
Lecture Notes in Computer Science, ISSN 0302-9743 ; 16361
Nyckelord
Architecture Degradation, Architecture Erosion, Challenges, Insights, Technical Debt, Degradation, Software engineering, Challenge, Focus groups, Four-core, Insight, Large organizations, Large-scale software systems, Organizational barriers, Technical debts, Architecture
Nationell ämneskategori
Programvaruteknik
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:bth-28988 (URN)10.1007/978-3-032-12089-2_30 (DOI)001718768800030 ()2-s2.0-105023325552 (Scopus ID)9783032120885 (ISBN)
Konferens
26th International Conference on Product-Focused Software Process Improvement, PROFES 2025, Salerno, Dec 1-3, 2025
Forskningsfinansiär
KK-stiftelsen, 20180010
Tillgänglig från: 2025-12-12 Skapad: 2025-12-12 Senast uppdaterad: 2026-06-25Bibliografiskt granskad
4. Exploring the Relationship between Technical Debt and Lead Time: An Industrial Case Study
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Exploring the Relationship between Technical Debt and Lead Time: An Industrial Case Study
2025 (Engelska)Ingår i: Proceedings - 2025 IEEE International Conference on Software Analysis, Evolution and Reengineering, SANER 2025, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2025, s. 693-703Konferensbidrag, Publicerat paper (Refereegranskat)
Abstract [en]

Background: Software companies must balance fast delivery and quality, a trade-off that often introduces technical debt and wastes developer's time. Technical debt tends to increase as software evolves, which is assumed to slow down development and maintenance activities. However, the potential relationship between technical debt and lead time lacks empirical evidence.

Objective: This paper reports an empirical study to explore the potential relationship between technical debt and lead time in resolving Jira tickets. We further aim to measure the extent to which technical debt can explain the variation in lead time.

Method: We conducted an industrial case study to explore this relationship in six components, each of which was analyzed individually. Technical debt was measured using SonarQube and normalized with the component's size. Lead times to resolve Jira tickets were collected from Jira and averaged monthly.

Results: The study found little to no correlation between technical debt and lead time to resolve Jira tickets in five components, with technical debt explaining a variation in lead time ranging from 0% to 41%. However, it is less than 30% in most of the components.

Conclusion: Technical debt alone does not fully explain the variation in lead time. There should be some other confounding variables (e.g., size and complexity of the changes, number of teams involved, priorities, component ownership) affecting lead time or a residual effect, i.e., interest, that might manifest later. Further investigation into those confounding variables is essential. 

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2025
Nyckelord
Case Study, Industrial Study, Lead Time, Technical Debt, Computer software maintenance, Software design, Software quality, Case-studies, Development activity, Empirical studies, Industrial case study, Leadtime, Maintenance activity, Software company, Technical debts, Trade off, Industrial research
Nationell ämneskategori
Programvaruteknik
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:bth-28084 (URN)10.1109/SANER64311.2025.00071 (DOI)001506888600063 ()2-s2.0-105007291171 (Scopus ID)9798331535100 (ISBN)
Konferens
32nd IEEE International Conference on Software Analysis, Evolution and Reengineering, SANER 2025, Monteral, March, 4-7, 2025
Forskningsfinansiär
KK-stiftelsen, 20180010
Tillgänglig från: 2025-06-13 Skapad: 2025-06-13 Senast uppdaterad: 2026-06-25Bibliografiskt granskad

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