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Changeability Assessment in Complex Systems to Support Early-Stage Design Decisions
Blekinge Institute of Technology, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7581-439x
2025 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The early design phase of complex, capital-intensive systems is critical for shaping their architecture and value proposition. However, such systems face numerous challenges from technological, economic, market, and regulatory domains. In addition, considering system-of-systems introduces new hurdles as the focus shifts from measuring performance to assessing overall effectiveness. Together with the growing trend of servitization, where traditional products are combined with value-added services to deliver functions, a lot of uncertainty is introduced during design decision-making. To handle these uncertainties, systems engineering literature advocates for incorporating lifecycle properties into the system that enable the system to deal with these uncertainties once deployed. Systems that consistently meet evolving stakeholder expectations, despite the changing contexts, are called value-robust systems. Changeability is one such property that allows the system to achieve value robustness by changing internally in response to changes externally. During the design stages, the goal is to identify and integrate options that would enable the system to exercise change and sustain value under all conditions.

In this light, this thesis aims to support the integration of changeability in complex systems by facilitating its assessment during the early design stages. To achieve this goal, it first identifies the existing methods and challenges in changeability assessment for achieving value robustness. To address these challenges, it proposes the Changeability Assessment in Systems during Early Design (CASED) method, which supports development teams in creating value-robust systems in the face of uncertainty. CASED is one of the core contributions of this work, allowing a holistic consideration of identification, quantification, and valuation of changeability during early design stages. It maps the expected mean value and expected standard deviation for each design as a function of changeability level, which serves as a guide for decisions concerning changeability. Additionally, this thesis explores the use of Extended Reality technologies to address perceptual complexity by visualizing operational scenarios and proposes designing for changeability as a mechanism for creating value-robust circular systems.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Karlskrona: Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, 2025. , p. 100
Series
Blekinge Institute of Technology Doctoral Dissertation Series, ISSN 1653-2090 ; 2025:09
Keywords [en]
Uncertainty, Changeability assessment, Value robustness, Early design stages, Systems Engineering, Product-Service Systems
National Category
Mechanical Engineering
Research subject
Mechanical Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:bth-28429ISBN: 978-91-7295-507-3 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:bth-28429DiVA, id: diva2:1986140
Public defence
2025-09-18, J1630, Campus Gräsvik, Karlskrona, 09:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2025-08-11 Created: 2025-07-30 Last updated: 2025-09-30Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Incorporating changeability for value-robust product-service systems: an integrative review
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Incorporating changeability for value-robust product-service systems: an integrative review
2024 (English)In: Design Science, E-ISSN 2053-4701, Vol. 10, article id e8Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The ongoing servitization journey of the manufacturing industries instills a through-life perspective of value, where a combination of products and services is delivered to meet expectations. Often described as a product-service system (PSS), these systems are poised with many complexity aspects, introducing uncertainties during the design phase. Incorporating changeability is one of the known strategies to deal with such uncertainties, where the system changes in the face of uncertainty to sustain value, thereby achieving value robustness. While the theme of dealing with multiple uncertainties has been discussed since the inception of PSS, changeability is still poorly addressed. To bridge this gap, an integrative literature review is performed to outline various complexities aspects and their link to uncertainty from a PSS perspective. Also, the state-of-the-art approach to achieving value robustness is presented via changeability incorporation. Subsequently, a reference framework is proposed to guide decision-makers in changeability incorporation in PSS, especially during the early design stages.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cambridge University Press, 2024
Keywords
Product-service systems, Systems engineering, Changeability, Uncertainty, Early design phase
National Category
Production Engineering, Human Work Science and Ergonomics
Research subject
Mechanical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:bth-26052 (URN)10.1017/dsj.2024.5 (DOI)001192359400001 ()2-s2.0-85187552444 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Vinnova, 2021-04347Vinnova, 2021-02551
Available from: 2024-03-12 Created: 2024-03-12 Last updated: 2025-09-30Bibliographically approved
2. Data-driven value creation in Smart Product-Service System design: State-of-the-art and research directions
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Data-driven value creation in Smart Product-Service System design: State-of-the-art and research directions
2022 (English)In: Computers in industry (Print), ISSN 0166-3615, E-ISSN 1872-6194, Vol. 137, article id 103606Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The emergence of IoT has propelled the traditionally known Product-Service System (PSS) to be characterized by smarter technologies, enabling them to collect and process data from the operational stage and facilitate communication between the customer and the provider. Commonly referred to as Smart Product-Service Systems (Smart PSS), these systems promise to create value at a personal level by collecting and effectively utilizing the operational data. However, one of the fundamental challenges is the lack of awareness as to what kind of data can be collected from the operational stage and what can be achieved from this data. This paper systematically reviews scientific literature to underline the kind of data being collected from the operational stage, the purposes being achieved from that data, and how they lead to value creation. The systematic review of 60 representative studies enabled the definition of the operational scenario that comprises 4 dimensions of data and 10 classes of data within these dimensions to generically identify what kind of data is being collected. The intend presented by various authors led to the generalization of 5 themes that target different purposes of collecting data. Further, the papers were classified with regards to functional or non-functional requirements to see how data in different approaches are leveraged for value creation. Finally, the discussion highlights the current gaps in the literature and raises several opportunities for future contributions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2022
Keywords
Operational context, Operational data, Smart Product-Service System, Systematic Literature Review, Value creation
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:bth-22567 (URN)10.1016/j.compind.2022.103606 (DOI)000754192300002 ()2-s2.0-85122617594 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Knowledge Foundation, 20180159
Note

open access

Available from: 2022-01-20 Created: 2022-01-20 Last updated: 2025-12-02Bibliographically approved
3. Supporting the Transition Towards Electromobility in theConstruction and Mining Sector: Optimization Framework and demonstration on an Electrical Hauler
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Supporting the Transition Towards Electromobility in theConstruction and Mining Sector: Optimization Framework and demonstration on an Electrical Hauler
2022 (English)In: Proceedings of the Design Society, Cambridge University Press, 2022, Vol. 2, p. 1649-1658Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The paper presents a framework for the integration of the system’s design variables, state variables, control strategies, and contextual variables into a design optimization problem to assist early-stage design decisions. The framework is based on a global optimizer incorporating Dynamic Programming, and its applicability is demonstrated by the conceptual design of an electrical hauler. Pareto front of optimal design solutions, in terms of time and cost, together with optimal velocity profiles and battery state-of-charge is visualized for the given mining scenario.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cambridge University Press, 2022
Series
Proceedings of the Design Society, E-ISSN 2732-527X
Keywords
systems engineering (SE), decision making, design optimisation, dynamic programming, early design phase
National Category
Mechanical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:bth-23589 (URN)10.1017/pds.2022.167 (DOI)
Conference
17th International Design Conference (Design2022)
Funder
Swedish Research Council FormasVinnovaSwedish Energy AgencyKnowledge Foundation
Note

open access

Available from: 2022-08-30 Created: 2022-08-30 Last updated: 2025-09-30Bibliographically approved
4. A tradespace exploration approach for changeability assessment from a system-of-systems perspective: application from the construction machinery industry
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A tradespace exploration approach for changeability assessment from a system-of-systems perspective: application from the construction machinery industry
2024 (English)In: Proceedings of the Design Society / [ed] Storga M., Skec S., Martinec T., Marjanovic D., Pavkovic N., Skec M.M., Cambridges Institutes Press, 2024, p. 2655-2664Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The rapid development of new technologies such as electrification, autonomy, and other contextual factors pose significant challenges to development teams in balancing competing aspects while developing value-robust solutions. One approach for achieving value robustness is designing for changeability. This paper presents a tradespace exploration from a Systems-of-Systems perspective to facilitate changeability assessment during early design stages. The approach is further demonstrated on a fleet of haulers operating in a mining site. © 2024 Proceedings of the Design Society. All rights reserved.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cambridges Institutes Press, 2024
Series
Proceedings of the Design Society, E-ISSN 2732-527X ; 4
Keywords
design optimisation, dynamic programming, early design phase, process modelling, systems engineering (SE), Balancing, Commerce, Construction equipment, Machine design, System of systems, Construction machinery industry, Contextual factors, Design optimization, Development teams, Early design phasis, Process-models, Robust solutions, System engineering, System-of-systems, Trade space explorations
National Category
Production Engineering, Human Work Science and Ergonomics Design
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:bth-26365 (URN)10.1017/pds.2024.268 (DOI)2-s2.0-85194110783 (Scopus ID)
Conference
International Design Society Conference, Design 2024, Cavtat, Dubrovnik, May 20-23 2024
Available from: 2024-06-17 Created: 2024-06-17 Last updated: 2025-09-30Bibliographically approved
5. Using Dynamic Programming and Reinforcement Learning for Exploring Tradespaces in Changeability Assessment
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Using Dynamic Programming and Reinforcement Learning for Exploring Tradespaces in Changeability Assessment
2025 (English)In: Proceedings of the ASME 2025 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference: Volume 2B: 45th Computers and Information in Engineering Conference (CIE), ASME Press, 2025Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The construction machinery industry faces many uncertainties stemming from environmental, operational, and market-related factors. To mitigate future risks, development teams often favor more broadly applicable solutions compared to localized performance gains in specific scenarios. This situation highlights the necessity of incorporating changeability in these solutions for developing value-robust systems that can manage future uncertainty. Changeability assessment relies on an effective tradespace exploration that provides a unified view of different system configurations and control policies. To support the design teams in exploring such tradespaces, this paper presents an approach combining Dynamic Programming (DP) and Reinforcement Learning (RL) for evaluating optimal control policies, illustrated through a wheel loader application. The underlying basis is that the overall task can be decomposed into several sub-tasks to be solved by DP or RL selectively. A control policy combined from these sub-tasks is presented along with an illustrative tradespace mapping system attributes. The results show that by combining the strengths of DP and RL, the proposed approach can be beneficial when exploring a wide range of solutions. It allows direct comparisons between configuration and control policy changes, which is crucial for effective changeability assessment. However, several limitations have been acknowledged and will be addressed in future studies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ASME Press, 2025
Keywords
Systems Engineering (SE), Simulation-based design, Multiobjective Optimization, Design for changeability.
National Category
Computer Sciences Production Engineering, Human Work Science and Ergonomics
Research subject
Mechanical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:bth-28428 (URN)10.1115/DETC2025-164521 (DOI)2-s2.0-105024217404 (Scopus ID)9780791889213 (ISBN)
Conference
ASME 2025 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, Anaheim, Aug 17-20, 2025
Funder
Vinnova, 2022-00578
Available from: 2025-07-30 Created: 2025-07-30 Last updated: 2026-01-02Bibliographically approved
6. An integrated simulation framework for system-of-systems value exploration
Open this publication in new window or tab >>An integrated simulation framework for system-of-systems value exploration
2025 (English)In: Design Science, E-ISSN 2053-4701, Vol. 11, article id e20Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The manufacturing sector is witnessing a paradigm shift toward servitization, where companies are transitioning from selling products to offering product-service systems. This shift creates additional challenges, where the providers must ensure the expected value throughout the operational phase of the solution. Especially when dealing with a system-of-systems (SoS), evaluating performance across diverse contexts and business models while understanding the interconnectedness between systems becomes critical. To address these challenges during the design phase, this article presents a novel integrated simulation framework that supports the development team in exploring value from a SoS perspective. This framework utilizes agent-based simulation and offers three key features: multifidelity, modular and multidisciplinary. The applicability of the proposed framework is further demonstrated in a quarry industry case.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cambridge University Press, 2025
Keywords
Systems engineering, Value-driven design, Agent-based simulation, Early-stage design, Product-service system
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:bth-28225 (URN)10.1017/dsj.2025.10012 (DOI)001511123300001 ()2-s2.0-105009115661 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2025-06-27 Created: 2025-06-27 Last updated: 2025-12-02Bibliographically approved
7. Changeability Assessment in Systems during Early Design
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Changeability Assessment in Systems during Early Design
Show others...
2025 (English)In: Journal of engineering design (Print), ISSN 0954-4828, E-ISSN 1466-1837Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

Increased stakeholder expectations and tougher global competition push the manufacturing industries to develop more complex solutions, introducing numerous uncertainties in design decision-making. Incorporating changeability is one way to systematically deal with uncertainty, which requires dealing with the identification, valuation, and quantification of changeability during the early design stages. Besides, when considering a system-of-systems (SoS) problem, it necessitates optimizing the portfolio of options within the SoS while considering the transition “in” and “of” the system combinatorially. In this light, this paper presents the Changeability Assessment in Systems during Early Design (CASED) method for development teams to create value-robust systems in the face of uncertainty. The CASED method utilizes epochs and eras to represent uncertainty and analyzes the impact of changing system configurations and control policies on overall system value. Considering transitions “in” and “of” the system involves solving a linear assignment problem to minimize the switch costs. A dynamic programming procedure for an era finds the avenues when change shall be exercised. Iterating through several eras, a map of the expected mean value and expected standard deviation is generated for all designs, which serves as a guide for decisions concerning changeability. The applicability of the method is further confirmed through a fleet of haulers operating in a quarry.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2025
Keywords
Uncertainty, Changeability, Value robustness, Early design stages, Systems Engineering
National Category
Production Engineering, Human Work Science and Ergonomics
Research subject
Mechanical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:bth-28427 (URN)10.1080/09544828.2025.2588549 (DOI)001614460200001 ()2-s2.0-105022020317 (Scopus ID)
Projects
Tested Site Optimization Solutions (Tested-SOS)
Funder
Vinnova, 2021-02551Vinnova, 2022-00578Vinnova, 2024-03678
Available from: 2025-07-30 Created: 2025-07-30 Last updated: 2025-11-28Bibliographically approved
8. Designing value-robust circular systems through changeability: a framework with case studies
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Designing value-robust circular systems through changeability: a framework with case studies
Show others...
2025 (English)In: Design Science, E-ISSN 2053-4701, Vol. 11, article id e15Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Increasing sustainability expectations requires support for the design of systems that are reactive in minimizing potential negative impact and proactive in guiding engineering decision-making toward more value-robust long-term decisions. This article identifies a gap in the methodological support for the design of circular systems, building on the hypothesis that computer-based simulation models will drive the development of more value-robust systems designed to behave positively in a changeable operational environment during the whole lifecycle. The article presents a framework for value-robust circular systems design, complementing the current approaches for circular design aimed at increasing decision-makers' awareness about the complexity of circular systems to be designed. The framework is theoretically described and demonstrated through its applications in four case studies in the field of construction machinery investigating new circular solutions for the future of mining, quarrying and road construction. The framework supports the development of more resilient and sustainable systems, strengthening the feedback loop between exploring new technologies, proposing innovative concepts and evaluating system performance.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cambridge University Press, 2025
Keywords
Value-Driven Design, Value Robustness, Circularity, Complex Systems, Uncertainty, Simulations
National Category
Production Engineering, Human Work Science and Ergonomics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:bth-27892 (URN)10.1017/dsj.2025.11 (DOI)001486151100001 ()2-s2.0-105005365241 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Vinnova, 2021-02551Vinnova, 2021-04347Swedish Research Council FormasSwedish Energy Agency
Available from: 2025-05-23 Created: 2025-05-23 Last updated: 2025-09-30Bibliographically approved

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Machchhar, Raj Jiten

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