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Decision Support through Global Demand Forecasting: Challenges and Directions in Make-To-Order Manufacturing Organisations
Blekinge Institute of Technology, Faculty of Computing, Department of Software Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1380-1408
2025 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Developing AI systems for complex real-world settings requires aligning technical development with domain-specific needs. However, a gap often exists between stakeholders and developers; stakeholders may lack technical expertise to express their needs clearly, whereas developers may lack domain knowledge to identify relevant tasks. This thesis aims to bridge that gap by exploring how decision support systems can address complex real-world tasks through tailored technical solutions and evaluation procedures.

The work includes a qualitative multiple case study with make-to-order companies to identify and prioritise AI tasks for system development, along with experimental studies that address gaps in intermittent demand forecasting using a novel timing-aware model and evaluation metric. We also conduct a remote sensing ditch detection study for environmental planning. Both cases highlight the need to align models and evaluation procedures with task-specific challenges such as data sparsity, noise, and class imbalance.

Our findings show that make-to-order manufacturers prioritise tasks that improve customer understanding, such as demand forecasting and decision risk estimation, as well as production-related tasks like quality inspection and predictive maintenance. Demand forecasting emerged as the most important task, with challenges linked to heterogeneous data stemming from intermittent patterns and numerous unique items. Our experiments show that decomposing demand into timing and magnitude improves forecasting performance, and that timing-aware metrics are essential for fair evaluation on a global scale. The ditch detection case similarly underscores the value of domain-aligned design and evaluation. The thesis contributes empirical insights on industry priorities and technical advances in forecasting and evaluation, emphasising the importance of grounding AI development in real-world conditions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Karlskrona: Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, 2025. , p. 156
Series
Blekinge Institute of Technology Licentiate Dissertation Series, ISSN 1650-2140 ; 2025:08
Keywords [en]
Artificial Intelligence, Machine learning, Decision support, Demand forecasting, Intermittent demand, Time-series, Neural networks, Make-to-order manufacturing
National Category
Computer Systems Computer Vision and Learning Systems
Research subject
Software Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:bth-28531ISBN: 978-91-7295-506-6 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:bth-28531DiVA, id: diva2:1991350
Presentation
2025-10-24, J1630, Valhallavägen 1, Karlskrona, 09:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2025-08-26 Created: 2025-08-22 Last updated: 2025-10-08Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Detecting ditches using supervised learning on high-resolution digital elevation models
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Detecting ditches using supervised learning on high-resolution digital elevation models
Show others...
2022 (English)In: Expert systems with applications, ISSN 0957-4174, E-ISSN 1873-6793, Vol. 201, article id 116961Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Drained wetlands can constitute a large source of greenhouse gas emissions, but the drainage networks in these wetlands are largely unmapped, and better maps are needed to aid in forest production and to better understand the climate consequences. We develop a method for detecting ditches in high resolution digital elevation models derived from LiDAR scans. Thresholding methods using digital terrain indices can be used to detect ditches. However, a single threshold generally does not capture the variability in the landscape, and generates many false positives and negatives. We hypothesise that, by combining the digital terrain indices using supervised learning, we can improve ditch detection at a landscape-scale. In addition to digital terrain indices, additional features are generated by transforming the data to include neighbouring cells for better ditch predictions. A Random Forests classifier is used to locate the ditches, and its probability output is processed to remove noise, and binarised to produce the final ditch prediction. The confidence interval for the Cohen's Kappa index ranges [0.655, 0.781] between the evaluation plots with a confidence level of 95%. The study demonstrates that combining information from a suite of digital terrain indices using machine learning provides an effective technique for automatic ditch detection at a landscape-scale, aiding in both practical forest management and in combatting climate change. © 2022 The Authors

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier Ltd, 2022
Keywords
Classification and regression trees, Geographic information systems, Machine learning, Supervised learning by classification, Classification (of information), Climate change, Decision trees, Digital instruments, E-learning, Forestry, Gas emissions, Geomorphology, Greenhouse gases, Information use, Metadata, Supervised learning, Surveying, Wetlands, Classification trees, Digital elevation model, Digital terrain, Drainage networks, Forest production, Greenhouse gas emissions, High resolution, Landscape scale, Regression trees
National Category
Physical Geography Earth Observation
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:bth-22881 (URN)10.1016/j.eswa.2022.116961 (DOI)000830107400002 ()2-s2.0-85128240716 (Scopus ID)
Funder
VinnovaSwedish Research Council Formas
Note

open access

Available from: 2022-04-29 Created: 2022-04-29 Last updated: 2025-09-30Bibliographically approved
2. Identifying key AI challenges in make-to-order manufacturing organisations: A multiple case study
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Identifying key AI challenges in make-to-order manufacturing organisations: A multiple case study
2025 (English)In: Journal of Systems and Software, ISSN 0164-1212, E-ISSN 1873-1228, Vol. 230, article id 112559Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Artificial Intelligence can make manufacturing organisations more effective and efficient, but it is not clear which AI tasks hold the greatest potential. Make-to-order manufacturers must constantly adapt to customers’ unique and rapidly changing needs, and therefore have different challenges than make-to-stock manufacturers. Our ambition is to develop an AI-enabled software system to support manufacturing organisations in improving their processes. To this end, we first seek to understand the data and technology requirements for key AI-enabled tasks in a make-to-order setting and determine the level of performance and explainability needed to address them. We perform a multiple case study of five make-to-order packaging manufacturers, interviewing personnel from sales, production, and supply chain to identify and prioritise operational challenges suitable for AI approaches. Demand forecasting emerges as the most important task, followed by predictive maintenance, quality inspection, complex decision risk estimation, and production planning. Participants emphasise the importance of explainable techniques to ensure trust in the systems. The results highlight a need for a greater control of the production process and a better understanding of customer needs. Although most of the tasks could be solved with current techniques, some, such as intermittent demand forecasting and complex decision risk estimation, would require further development. The study clarifies the potential of AI-enabled systems in make-to-order manufacturing and outlines the steps required to realise it.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2025
Keywords
Multiple case study, Artificial intelligence, Manufacturing, Make-to-order, Data requirements
National Category
Computer Systems
Research subject
Software Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:bth-28524 (URN)10.1016/j.jss.2025.112559 (DOI)001542843200002 ()2-s2.0-105011965337 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Knowledge Foundation, 20180010
Available from: 2025-08-21 Created: 2025-08-21 Last updated: 2025-09-30Bibliographically approved
3. Navigating demand forecasting in make-to-order manufacturing: the role of global models and intermittent time-series
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Navigating demand forecasting in make-to-order manufacturing: the role of global models and intermittent time-series
2025 (English)In: CEUR Workshop Proceedings / [ed] Nowaczyk S., Vettoruzzo A., Technical University of Aachen , 2025, Vol. 4037, p. 12-25Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Demand forecasting can optimise production and supply chain practices in manufacturing organisations. However, demand forecasting is not widely adopted among make-to-order (MTO) manufacturers with mass customisation offers. Building effective demand forecasting systems is challenging in such organisations due to the numerous unique manufactured articles and sparse demand patterns. This position paper argues that make-to-order manufacturers should employ demand forecasting to a larger extent, and that the forecasting community should address challenges related to the domain. Key challenges include creating models capable of predicting both demand size and timing of intermittent forecasts, as well as a deeper insight into the effects of global deep learning time-series models. We perform a pilot experiment using demand forecasting in a purchasing decision support system to validate the usefulness of demand forecasting for MTO manufacturing organisations with mass customisation offers. A research roadmap is proposed to address the identified challenges.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Technical University of Aachen, 2025
Series
CEUR Workshop Proceedings, E-ISSN 1613-0073
Keywords
Demand Forecasting, Intermittent Time-Series, Global Models, Machine Learning, Make-to-Order Manufacturing, Mass Customization
National Category
Computer Systems
Research subject
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:bth-28525 (URN)2-s2.0-105017576764 (Scopus ID)
Conference
SAIS 2025: Swedish AI Society workshop 2025, Halmstad, June 16-17 2025
Funder
Knowledge Foundation, 20180010
Available from: 2025-08-21 Created: 2025-08-21 Last updated: 2025-10-17Bibliographically approved
4. Forecasting and evaluating intermittent demand with timing-aware global models and heterogeneous data
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Forecasting and evaluating intermittent demand with timing-aware global models and heterogeneous data
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Keywords
Demand forecasting, Intermittent demand, Forecasting metric, Decision support, Neural networks, Time series
National Category
Computer Vision and Learning Systems
Research subject
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:bth-28526 (URN)
Funder
Knowledge Foundation
Available from: 2025-08-21 Created: 2025-08-21 Last updated: 2025-09-30Bibliographically approved

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Flyckt, Jonatan

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