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Hybrid decision support systems for predicting train delay codes in a socio-techno-economic system
Blekinge Institute of Technology, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Industrial Economics.
Blekinge Institute of Technology, Faculty of Computing, Department of Computer Science.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8929-7220
Swedish Transport Adm, Gothenburg, Sweden.
2026 (English)In: Journal of Business Analytics, ISSN 2573-234X, E-ISSN 2573-2358Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

In complex operational environments, hybrid decision-making frameworks offer a means to integrate human expertise - characterized by contextual sensitivity, adaptability, and experiential knowledge - with the objective, standardized precision of machine-based systems.MethodThis study develops a decision-support structure by comparing supervised Machine Learning (ML) models; random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM) and a bidirectional encoder representation from transformer-based (KB/BERT) model - using hierarchical and flat approaches against a manual classification process, involving more than 200 train delay codes across 10 days. ML models are trained on same-day delay data and evaluated against the outcomes from a multi-actor decision process.ResultsHierarchical models outperform flat ones, achieving near-human assessors on basic level coding (Level 1 and 2), though with greater variability (mean F1-scores (50-91 per cent)), compared to manual classification (mean F1-scores (87-98 per cent)) at the most granular level (Level 3) of prediction. "Simpler" models also outperform the more complex KB/BERT.Practical ImplicationsWe discuss the functionality and accuracy of ML-based hybrid decision-support systems (HDSS), noting the need for trade-offs between precision and accuracy. ML models demonstrate potential to complement - not replace - human expertise, particularly with uncertainty estimation tools that mitigate classification risks and support decision-making. We conclude with implications for data representation in the design of HDSS within socio-techno-economic contexts.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2026.
Keywords [en]
Hybrid decision-making, classification, natural language processing, railway management, supervised learning, train delay attribution
National Category
Artificial Intelligence Information Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:bth-29292DOI: 10.1080/2573234X.2026.2642030ISI: 001717355500001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105033005479OAI: oai:DiVA.org:bth-29292DiVA, id: diva2:2049229
Funder
Swedish Transport Administration, TRV 2021/79668Available from: 2026-03-27 Created: 2026-03-27 Last updated: 2026-04-07Bibliographically approved

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Svensson, MartinBorg, Anton

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