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Freeway Travel Time Estimation Using Sequential Link Regression Modeling
Linköping University.
Blekinge Institute of Technology, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3707-2780
Malmö University.
2025 (English)In: IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Proceedings, ITSC, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2025, p. 303-308Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Accurate travel time estimations are essential for traffic analysis and enable modern applications such as dynamic route guidance and traffic control. With the growing availability of high-resolution traffic data from GPS-enabled devices and probe vehicles, advanced models have been developed to estimate travel times more precisely. This paper proposes a sequential link estimation method for trip-level travel time estimation. The method exploits how travel times on one link are influenced by the preceding link and influence the subsequent link along a route. The method uses a chain of regression estimation models where each link's estimated travel time depends on the travel time of the adjacent link. Each estimated value is passed as input to the model for the next link, creating a chain of conditional estimates that extends from an arbitrary link to both the beginning and end of a freeway. We evaluate the proposed travel time estimation method using real-world traffic data from freeways in Sweden. The results show an average percentage error as low as 2.38 percent with a standard deviation of 1.88 percent, indicating highly accurate travel time estimates. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2025. p. 303-308
Series
IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ISSN 2153-0009, E-ISSN 2153-0017
Keywords [en]
regression prediction model, sequential link modeling, Travel time estimation, Chains, Highway traffic control, Intelligent systems, Intelligent vehicle highway systems, Motor transportation, Regression analysis, Estimation methods, Link model, Prediction modelling, Regression modelling, Regression predictions, Traffic data, Travel-time, Travel time
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:bth-29475DOI: 10.1109/ITSC60802.2025.11423489Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105036994791ISBN: 9798331524180 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:bth-29475DiVA, id: diva2:2058604
Conference
28th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2025, gold Coast, Nov 18-21, 2025
Available from: 2026-05-08 Created: 2026-05-08 Last updated: 2026-05-18Bibliographically approved

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Dahl, Mattias

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