Predicting Public Violent Crime Using Register and OpenStreetMap Data: A Risk Terrain Modeling Approach Across Three Cities of Varying Size
2025 (English)In: Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, ISSN 1874-463X, E-ISSN 1874-4621, Vol. 18, no 1, article id 9Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]
The aim of the current study is to estimate whether spatial data on place features from OpenStreetMap (OSM) produce results similar to those when employing register data to predict future violent crime in public across three Swedish cities of varying sizes. Using violent crime in public as an outcome, four models for each city are produced using a Risk Terrain Modeling approach. One using spatial data on place features from register data and one from OSM, one model with prior violent crime excluded and one with prior crime included. The results show that several place features are significantly associated with violent crime in public independent of using register or OSM data as input. While models using register data seem to produce more accurate and efficient predictions than OSM data for the two smaller cities, the difference for the largest city is negligible indicating that the models provide similar results. As such, OSM place feature data may be of value when predicting the spatial distribution of future violent crime in public and provide results similar to those when using register data, at least when employed in larger compared to smaller cities. Possibilities, limitations, and avenues for future research when using OSM data in place-based criminological research are discussed. © The Author(s) 2024.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Science+Business Media B.V., 2025. Vol. 18, no 1, article id 9
Keywords [en]
Crime Mapping, OpenStreetMap, Predictive Accuracy Index, Predictive Efficiency Index, Risk Terrain Modeling, Violent Crime, Sweden, accuracy assessment, crime, model validation, research work, spatial data, spatial distribution, terrain, urban area
National Category
Social and Economic Geography
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:bth-27105DOI: 10.1007/s12061-024-09609-3ISI: 001346802500001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85208480515OAI: oai:DiVA.org:bth-27105DiVA, id: diva2:1913914
Projects
Data-driven analys av polisens kamerabevakning - Effekter på brott, brottsuppklarning och otrygghet
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2022-054422024-11-182024-11-182025-09-30Bibliographically approved