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Predicting B2B Customer Churn using a Time Series Approach
Telenor Sverige AB, Karlskrona, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0179-5090
Blekinge Institute of Technology, Faculty of Computing, Department of Computer Science.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9316-4842
Blekinge Institute of Technology, Faculty of Computing, Department of Computer Science.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8929-7220
Blekinge Institute of Technology, Faculty of Computing, Department of Computer Science.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9947-1088
2024 (English)In: 2024 5th International Conference on Intelligent Data Science Technologies and Applications, IDSTA 2024 / [ed] Alsmirat M., Jararweh Y., Aloqaily M., Salameh H.B., Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2024, p. 44-51Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Preventing customer churn, i.e., termination of business commitments, is essential for companies operating in saturated markets, especially for subscription-based models such as telecommunication. Knowing when customers decide to terminate services is instrumental to effective churn prevention. In this study, we investigate how churn prediction performs in practice when training models on different time intervals of historic data (1-4 weeks back) and predicting churn at different numbers of weeks ahead (1-4 weeks). We use a real-world, time-series dataset of mobile subscription usage to examine churn prediction for business-to-business (B2B) customers. We utilize the timeseries data at a higher temporal resolution than prior studies and investigate different forecasting horizons. Leveraging popular machine learning algorithms such as Random Forests, Gradient Boosting, Neural Networks, and Gated Recurrent Unit, we show that the best model achieves an average F1-score of 79.3% for one-week ahead predictions. However, the average F1-score decreases to 63.3% and 61.8% for two and four weeks ahead, respectively. A model interpretation framework (SHAP) evaluates the feature impact on the models' internal decision logic. We also discuss the challenges in applying churn prediction for the B2B segment. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2024. p. 44-51
Keywords [en]
Customer churn prediction, Machine learning, Telecom B2B customers, Time-series data, Adaptive boosting, Prediction models, Recurrent neural networks, Time series, Churn predictions, Customer churns, F1 scores, Machine-learning, Telecom, Telecom B2B customer, Times series, Training model, Sales
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:bth-27323DOI: 10.1109/IDSTA62194.2024.10746986ISI: 001454387000006Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85211903878ISBN: 9798350354751 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:bth-27323DiVA, id: diva2:1923857
Conference
5th International Conference on Intelligent Data Science Technologies and Applications, IDSTA 2024, Dubrovnik, Sept 24-27, 2024
Note

This work was partly funded by Telenor Sverige AB.

Available from: 2025-01-01 Created: 2025-01-01 Last updated: 2025-09-30Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Artificial Intelligence for Enhanced B2B Customer Lifecycle Management in Telecommunications
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Artificial Intelligence for Enhanced B2B Customer Lifecycle Management in Telecommunications
2025 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This work investigates the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into customer lifecycle management (CLM) with a specific focus on business-to-business (B2B) customers within the telecommunications sector. The research highlights the importance of effectively managing customer expectations and experiences across various stages of their relationship with a company, from brand recognition to potential churn. It emphasizes the need for businesses to leverage AI to enhance decision-making, personalize customer journeys, and optimize customer lifetime value to stay competitive in saturated markets. 

We conducted a literature review to provide a more complete view of AI in CLM and to identify research gaps, particularly in practical AI implementations aimed at improving customer lifecycles. The work aims to provide actionable insights and models applicable to organizations seeking to utilize AI in their CLM strategies. We employed an empirical approach to evaluate our proposed methods and AI models, which showed a good capability in predicting churn in B2B, email response time in customer service, and non-routing email detection. Throughout this work, we have taken a practical approach and based all work on real-world data to demonstrate a potential business impact.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Karlskrona: Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, 2025
Series
Blekinge Institute of Technology Licentiate Dissertation Series, ISSN 1650-2140 ; 2025:05
Keywords
Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Customer Lifecycle Management, Telecommunications, Buisiness-to-Business
National Category
Computer Sciences
Research subject
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:bth-27615 (URN)978-91-7295-499-1 (ISBN)
Presentation
2025-05-14, C413A, Valhallavägen 1, Karlskrona, 13:15
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2025-03-21 Created: 2025-03-18 Last updated: 2025-09-30Bibliographically approved

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Ahlstrand, JimBoldt, MartinBorg, AntonGrahn, Håkan

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