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Sensor Free Fill-Level Forecasting and AI-Driven (NSGA-II) Route Optimization for Multi-Compartment Waste Collection
Blekinge Institute of Technology, Faculty of Computing, Department of Computer Science.
Blekinge Institute of Technology, Faculty of Computing, Department of Computer Science.
2025 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Background: Urbanization and the increasing volume of municipal solid waste challenge traditional fixed-route collection strategies. Sensor-based smart waste systems offer a solution, but are costly to deploy at scale. This thesis explores a cost-effective alternative by combining machine learning (ML) for fill-level forecasting and evolutionary multi-objective optimization for waste collection routing, specifically targeting multi-compartment vehicles without relying on real-time sensors.Objectives: The primary objective is to develop a modular framework comprising(1) a sensor-free waste fill-level prediction module based on sequence-to-sequence neural networks, and (2) a multi-objective route optimization module using a customized Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II). The goal is to accurately forecast container fill levels and to generate efficient collection routes that minimize both travel distance and service time under realistic operational constraints.Methods: A synthetic fill-level dataset was generated to reflect realistic seasonality, holidays, and operational conditions. Transformer, LSTM, and BidirectionalLSTM models were trained for sequence-to-sequence forecasting. Route optimization employed a multi-objective NSGA-II algorithm, with a constraint programming pre-processor (CP-SAT) to assign valid collection days based on waste type, service frequency, and vehicle capacity constraints. Comparative benchmarking was conducted against Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) and a commercial PTV routing engine.Results: Transformer-based models consistently outperformed LSTM baselines in forecasting accuracy across synthetic scenarios. In routing, NSGA-II generated Pareto-optimal solutions balancing distance and service time, outperforming ACO and achieving competitive results compared to the commercial PTV solver. The combined framework demonstrated that predictive, sensor-free optimization is a viable pathway to smarter and greener waste collection systems.Conclusions: The findings confirm that sensor-free fill-level forecasting combined with evolutionary multi-objective optimization offers a scalable, cost-effective alternative for modern waste management. The modular approach allows for future integration with real-time systems and supports proactive planning strategies that reduce environmental and operational costs.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025. , p. 70
Keywords [en]
Waste Collection, Fill-Level Forecasting, Transformer, Sequence-to-Sequence Forecasting, Multi-Objective Optimization
National Category
Artificial Intelligence
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:bth-27941OAI: oai:DiVA.org:bth-27941DiVA, id: diva2:1962517
External cooperation
Decerno
Subject / course
Degree Project in Master of Science in Engineering 30,0 hp
Educational program
DVAMI Master of Science in Engineering: AI and Machine Learning 300 hp
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2025-06-11 Created: 2025-05-30 Last updated: 2025-09-30Bibliographically approved

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