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Navigating demand forecasting in make-to-order manufacturing: the role of global models and intermittent time-series
Blekinge Institute of Technology, Faculty of Computing, Department of Software Engineering. Herenco AB, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1380-1408
Blekinge Institute of Technology, Faculty of Computing, Department of Software Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0535-1761
2025 (English)In: CEUR Workshop Proceedings / [ed] Nowaczyk S., Vettoruzzo A., Technical University of Aachen , 2025, Vol. 4037, p. 12-25Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Demand forecasting can optimise production and supply chain practices in manufacturing organisations. However, demand forecasting is not widely adopted among make-to-order (MTO) manufacturers with mass customisation offers. Building effective demand forecasting systems is challenging in such organisations due to the numerous unique manufactured articles and sparse demand patterns. This position paper argues that make-to-order manufacturers should employ demand forecasting to a larger extent, and that the forecasting community should address challenges related to the domain. Key challenges include creating models capable of predicting both demand size and timing of intermittent forecasts, as well as a deeper insight into the effects of global deep learning time-series models. We perform a pilot experiment using demand forecasting in a purchasing decision support system to validate the usefulness of demand forecasting for MTO manufacturing organisations with mass customisation offers. A research roadmap is proposed to address the identified challenges.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Technical University of Aachen , 2025. Vol. 4037, p. 12-25
Series
CEUR Workshop Proceedings, E-ISSN 1613-0073
Keywords [en]
Demand Forecasting, Intermittent Time-Series, Global Models, Machine Learning, Make-to-Order Manufacturing, Mass Customization
National Category
Computer Systems
Research subject
Computer Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:bth-28525Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105017576764OAI: oai:DiVA.org:bth-28525DiVA, id: diva2:1991113
Conference
SAIS 2025: Swedish AI Society workshop 2025, Halmstad, June 16-17 2025
Part of project
SERT- Software Engineering ReThought, Knowledge Foundation
Funder
Knowledge Foundation, 20180010Available from: 2025-08-21 Created: 2025-08-21 Last updated: 2025-10-17Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Decision Support through Global Demand Forecasting: Challenges and Directions in Make-To-Order Manufacturing Organisations
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Decision Support through Global Demand Forecasting: Challenges and Directions in Make-To-Order Manufacturing Organisations
2025 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Developing AI systems for complex real-world settings requires aligning technical development with domain-specific needs. However, a gap often exists between stakeholders and developers; stakeholders may lack technical expertise to express their needs clearly, whereas developers may lack domain knowledge to identify relevant tasks. This thesis aims to bridge that gap by exploring how decision support systems can address complex real-world tasks through tailored technical solutions and evaluation procedures.

The work includes a qualitative multiple case study with make-to-order companies to identify and prioritise AI tasks for system development, along with experimental studies that address gaps in intermittent demand forecasting using a novel timing-aware model and evaluation metric. We also conduct a remote sensing ditch detection study for environmental planning. Both cases highlight the need to align models and evaluation procedures with task-specific challenges such as data sparsity, noise, and class imbalance.

Our findings show that make-to-order manufacturers prioritise tasks that improve customer understanding, such as demand forecasting and decision risk estimation, as well as production-related tasks like quality inspection and predictive maintenance. Demand forecasting emerged as the most important task, with challenges linked to heterogeneous data stemming from intermittent patterns and numerous unique items. Our experiments show that decomposing demand into timing and magnitude improves forecasting performance, and that timing-aware metrics are essential for fair evaluation on a global scale. The ditch detection case similarly underscores the value of domain-aligned design and evaluation. The thesis contributes empirical insights on industry priorities and technical advances in forecasting and evaluation, emphasising the importance of grounding AI development in real-world conditions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Karlskrona: Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, 2025. p. 156
Series
Blekinge Institute of Technology Licentiate Dissertation Series, ISSN 1650-2140 ; 2025:08
Keywords
Artificial Intelligence, Machine learning, Decision support, Demand forecasting, Intermittent demand, Time-series, Neural networks, Make-to-order manufacturing
National Category
Computer Systems Computer Vision and Learning Systems
Research subject
Software Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:bth-28531 (URN)978-91-7295-506-6 (ISBN)
Presentation
2025-10-24, J1630, Valhallavägen 1, Karlskrona, 09:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2025-08-26 Created: 2025-08-22 Last updated: 2025-10-08Bibliographically approved

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Flyckt, JonatanLavesson, Niklas

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