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Forecasting and evaluating intermittent demand with timing-aware global models and heterogeneous data
Blekinge Institute of Technology, Faculty of Computing, Department of Software Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1380-1408
Jönköping University.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2161-7371
Blekinge Institute of Technology, Faculty of Computing, Department of Computer Science. Blekinge Institute of Technology, Faculty of Computing, Department of Software Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0535-1761
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Keywords [en]
Demand forecasting, Intermittent demand, Forecasting metric, Decision support, Neural networks, Time series
National Category
Computer Vision and Learning Systems
Research subject
Computer Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:bth-28526OAI: oai:DiVA.org:bth-28526DiVA, id: diva2:1991114
Funder
Knowledge FoundationAvailable from: 2025-08-21 Created: 2025-08-21 Last updated: 2025-09-30Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Decision Support through Global Demand Forecasting: Challenges and Directions in Make-To-Order Manufacturing Organisations
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Decision Support through Global Demand Forecasting: Challenges and Directions in Make-To-Order Manufacturing Organisations
2025 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Developing AI systems for complex real-world settings requires aligning technical development with domain-specific needs. However, a gap often exists between stakeholders and developers; stakeholders may lack technical expertise to express their needs clearly, whereas developers may lack domain knowledge to identify relevant tasks. This thesis aims to bridge that gap by exploring how decision support systems can address complex real-world tasks through tailored technical solutions and evaluation procedures.

The work includes a qualitative multiple case study with make-to-order companies to identify and prioritise AI tasks for system development, along with experimental studies that address gaps in intermittent demand forecasting using a novel timing-aware model and evaluation metric. We also conduct a remote sensing ditch detection study for environmental planning. Both cases highlight the need to align models and evaluation procedures with task-specific challenges such as data sparsity, noise, and class imbalance.

Our findings show that make-to-order manufacturers prioritise tasks that improve customer understanding, such as demand forecasting and decision risk estimation, as well as production-related tasks like quality inspection and predictive maintenance. Demand forecasting emerged as the most important task, with challenges linked to heterogeneous data stemming from intermittent patterns and numerous unique items. Our experiments show that decomposing demand into timing and magnitude improves forecasting performance, and that timing-aware metrics are essential for fair evaluation on a global scale. The ditch detection case similarly underscores the value of domain-aligned design and evaluation. The thesis contributes empirical insights on industry priorities and technical advances in forecasting and evaluation, emphasising the importance of grounding AI development in real-world conditions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Karlskrona: Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, 2025. p. 156
Series
Blekinge Institute of Technology Licentiate Dissertation Series, ISSN 1650-2140 ; 2025:08
Keywords
Artificial Intelligence, Machine learning, Decision support, Demand forecasting, Intermittent demand, Time-series, Neural networks, Make-to-order manufacturing
National Category
Computer Systems Computer Vision and Learning Systems
Research subject
Software Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:bth-28531 (URN)978-91-7295-506-6 (ISBN)
Presentation
2025-10-24, J1630, Valhallavägen 1, Karlskrona, 09:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2025-08-26 Created: 2025-08-22 Last updated: 2025-10-08Bibliographically approved

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Lavesson, Niklas

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Citation style
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Output format
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