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Effective system-of-systems simulation in a VUCA world: lessons learned for design decision-makers
Blekinge Institute of Technology, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2579-2310
Blekinge Institute of Technology, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5076-3300
Blekinge Institute of Technology, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4875-391X
2025 (English)In: Proceedings of the Design Society: Volume 5: ICED25 / [ed] di Milano P., Cambridge University Press, 2025, p. 1435-1444Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Today, Manufacturing companies are adopting a servitization strategy and Product-Service System model to enhance value and remain competitive. Often, this transition also means to embrace a System-of-Systems (SoS) perspective. Concurrently, companies face challenges with volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) environments. One way to tackle VUCA is to utilize simulation modeling. However, developing SoS simulations can be complex and cumbersome. This paper extracts lessons learned from six case studies to identify effective and ineffective practices in developing simulation models. The analysis has led to nine design principles for more effective simulation modeling. Furthermore, the paper explores simulation techniques for modeling SoS and discusses effective VUCA management. Finally, the paper proposes four future research directions to advance SoS simulation research.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cambridge University Press, 2025. p. 1435-1444
Series
Proceedings of the Design Society, E-ISSN 2732-527X
Keywords [en]
system-of-systems, simulation, early design phases, complexity
National Category
Industrial engineering and management Design
Research subject
Mechanical Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:bth-28702DOI: 10.1017/pds.2025.10157Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105022792831OAI: oai:DiVA.org:bth-28702DiVA, id: diva2:2002788
Conference
25th International Conference on Engineering Design, ICED 2025, Dallas, Aug 11-14, 2025
Part of project
Future Fossil Free Rock Loading Solution, VinnovaASPECT – A System for Electric and Connected Transport Solutions, VinnovaTRUST-SOS – TRUSTed – Site Optimisation Solutions, Vinnova
Funder
Vinnova, 2022-00578Vinnova, 2021-04347Vinnova, 2021-02551Swedish Energy Agency, P2023-01415EU, Horizon Europe, 101093968Available from: 2025-10-01 Created: 2025-10-01 Last updated: 2025-12-05Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Effective Simulations for Value Exploration in System-of-Systems Design: A Step Towards Digital Twins
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Effective Simulations for Value Exploration in System-of-Systems Design: A Step Towards Digital Twins
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Today, increased global competition and regulatory demands push organizations to find innovative ways to design and create value. One way is to examine Product-Service System offerings, which enable more stable revenues and foster tighter collaboration and value co-creation between the provider and customer. However, this often means adopting a System-of-Systems (SoS) approach where the value creation is dependent on successful collaboration between constituent systems and actors. SoS also leads to higher complexity and uncertainty, making them more challenging to design, especially in the early stages where knowledge is limited. Therefore, this thesis investigates how to leverage simulations and operational data to explore the value creation in SoS design.

Methodologically, the work adopts a Design Research Methodology and Participatory Action Research approach, combining systematic literature reviews with six industrial case studies in the construction machinery and climate resilience sectors. The case studies originate from a series of research projects conducted in collaboration with various industrial and public partners between 2020 and 2025. 

The research introduces two main contributions. First, the Value–Data Framework, which operationalizes Value-Driven Design by linking value modeling to operational datasets, enabling transparent and quantitative assessment of value creation. The value model introduces a two-step value hierarchy to enhance transparency and address the growing complexity of SoS. Operational data is defined and classified clearly to show where and how it can be leveraged. The second contribution, an Integrated Simulation Platform, equips design teams with the ability to develop effective simulations for SoS modeling in early design stages. The platform explicitly addresses multi-fidelity to guide developers in balancing the computational complexity and accuracy. Finally, both contributions are demonstrated in quarry case studies to validate and highlight their usefulness. Lastly, the SoS simulations are contextualized for Digital Twinning, and the use cases and needs for deploying Digital Twins in climate resilience efforts are examined.

The findings advance theory by bridging Value-Driven Design and SoS simulations, and provide practical guidelines for managing fidelity trade-offs and data–value integration. Industrial implications include improved decision support for electrification, autonomy, and resilience strategies. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Karlskrona: Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, 2026. p. 100
Series
Blekinge Institute of Technology Doctoral Dissertation Series, ISSN 1653-2090 ; 2026:02
Keywords
System-of-Systems, Value-Driven Design, Operational data, Simulation, Decision support, Digital Twin
National Category
Mechanical Engineering
Research subject
Mechanical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:bth-28936 (URN)978-91-7295-520-2 (ISBN)
Public defence
2026-02-12, J1630, Valhallavägen 1, Karlskrona, 09:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
VinnovaEU, Horizon EuropeKnowledge Foundation
Available from: 2025-12-02 Created: 2025-12-02 Last updated: 2026-01-13Bibliographically approved

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Toller Melén, Carl Nils KonradBertoni, MarcoJohansson Askling, Christian

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